Today’s Image
Actually I do not like this image, but I felt compelled to post it because it reflects the fairly caustic political atmosphere here, despite the fact that there is an ongoing hot war in Gaza and Judea/Samaria (West Bank) along with a cooler war in Lebanon, Syria. While I disagree with several of the decisions being made by the Prime Minister and think that he should have stepped down long ago, I think that this is an ugly and unfair comparison to Kim Jong Un of North Korea. Demonstrations are abundant across much of the country. The numbers showing up are still well below the peak level during the 2023 Judicial Reform protests, but they are intense nonetheless. The list of complaints against the government led by Prime Minister Netanyahu is long:
judicial reform (I provide some insight below),
perceived lack of priority on negotiating hostages release,
intent to fire Director of Shin Bet Ronen Bar (I will also provide some insight below),
threats to fire Attorney General Gali Baharav Miara,
postponing appointment of State Commission of Inquiry regarding the events surrounding October 7, 2023,
Qatargate,
ultra-orthodox draft evasion
and more.
Despite all this, I honestly do not think that the opposition parties have the ability to bring down this government. I urge you to read this article written by former Ambassador to the USA Michael Oren that he wrote in The Free Press. I had thought once that the ultra-orthodox draft exemption would bring the government down. I do not think that the government can succeed in passing such a law and will likely do what it can to postpone bringing the crisis to a head. And the ultra-orthodox political parties know that if they bring the government down their treatment in the next government will likely be worse. If this coalition survives, The next elections will take place in fall 2026, 1 ½ years from now. On October 26, 2026 the Prime Minister will be 77 years old. I am no political strategist but I would guess that Netanyahu will run again as head of Likud, but likely designate an heir apparent as his age is likely to be an issue in the election.
Casualties
There have been no IDF or civilian casualties in the past 7 1/2 weeks.
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
Two rockets was fired from Gaza City on Tuesday towards a position just north east of Gaza in Israel but fell in an open field. Islamic Jihad took responsibility. The Houthis have fired three ballistic missiles in the past week. Two were fired today triggering sirens across central Israel. I was already in the bomb shelter in my apartment in Tel Aviv as it doubles as my office. All the Houthi missiles were intercepted outside Israeli airspace by Israeli built aerial defense systems.
Gaza Front
The IDF is continuing its aerial attacks on ranking Hamas officials across Gaza. The IDF and Shin Bet announced today that they had assassinated Hamas spokesman Abdul Latif al-Qanou in an airstrike in the northern Gaza Strip last night. Read more here. Altogether the IDF has conducted more than 400 attacks on Hamas in the past week including assassinations of high ranking Hamas officials (both civilian and military terrorists), garage facilities housing their vehicles, some remaining arms storage facilities, etc. The IDF estimates that about 150 terrorist operatives have been killed during these operations. Here you can see a video posted by the IDF of their drone attack on the team that launched the rocket on Tuesday. The IDF had issued evacuation orders in parts of Gaza City before that strike.
So far IDF ground troops have entered Gaza in three key areas - in the South in and around Rafah, in the North in and around Beit Lahiya and in the center retaking about ½ of Netzarim Corridor that separates northern from southern Gaza. The IDF troops have encountered little resistance so far. All those well dressed Hamas terrorists that were staged during the hostage release shows are now all back in civilian clothes hiding amongst the general population.
There are reports of troops uncovering tunnels and underground rocket launchers but so far no reports of close quarters combat yet. There is talk that the IDF is calling up reserves once again in order to muster up forces for the purpose of expanding the ground operations in Gaza. But it is unclear yet how many forces are being called into service. There was a drill conducted earlier in the week that tested the call up process.
For two days in a row now hundreds of Gaza residents have been seen visibly protesting against Hamas. While the signs are clearly directed against Hamas and the destruction it has brought onto Gaza, Hamas insists that the protests are directed against Israel.
Based on intelligence gathered during the many operations inside Gaza over the past 1 ½ years, the IDF learned that one of the targets of the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023 was the Israeli city of Beersheba. It was only because the terrorists were so distracted with the rapes, dismemberment, torture, etc. that they did not get to their target. That and the brave resistance put together ad hoc by unorganized units of the IDF that put up a large resistance.
Judea/Samaria Front
During an exchange of rock throwing between Israeli residents of southern Judea, not far from Hebron, and Arab residents several arrests were made of perpetrators from both sides. Among the Arabs throwing rocks, Hamdan Ballal was arrested, but released a day later. He was one of the Oscar winners for the Best Documentary. You can read more here.
Lebanon Front
The IDF is maintaining its positions in those 5 small positions straddling the Blue Line separating Lebanon from Israel. The IAF continues its operations in assassinating senior Hezbollah operatives and destroying arms smuggling operations. Just this evening
Yemen Front
The USA Centcom forces are continuing their aerial strikes against Houthi forces in Yemen. In just the past 24 hours there have been more than 17 raids on Houthi facilities. There is no sign that these aerial attacks will stop. What I do not understand, yet, is why the USA has not eliminated the Iranian ship anchored off Yemen’s coast which is responsible for directing most of the Houthi attacks on merchant vessels.
IDF/Government - Shin Bet Director
As noted above there are many protests taking place across the country opposing the policies of the Government. I will try to provide details and perspectives on only two of them in this post.
First up is the attempt to fire the Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar. The Shin Bet is a national security agency that was set up at the founding of the state in 1948 reporting directly to the Prime Minister. For those of you with the time, you might consider listening to this podcast on Dan Senor’s Call Me Back show which you can listen to here on Spotify and here on Apple Podcasts. The link to the organization’s web site can be found here, where it calls itself The Israeli Security Agency. It was set up to investigate, gather intelligence and act on dangers to the state emanating from within the state. You have to understand that Israel has been effectively at war since its founding at one level or another. But the agency has been abused by Prime Ministers in the past, including Israel’s first Prime Minister David Ben Gurion. He requested that the agency monitor communications from his political opponents on the left, a communist party known as Mapam and on the right, the Herut Party led by Menachem Begin. Because Israel had enemies from within its own population, some planted by foreign entities, some from its Arab minority and some Jewish there was a need for an organization to actively work to reduce the threats to the state. A few years after Israel liberated Judea, Samaria and Gaza during the 6 day war in 1967, the responsibilities of the Shin Bet Agency expanded to include counterterrorism and counterespionage in these physical areas. These days it has primary responsibilities in three domains:
The Arab Department responsible for counterterrorism intelligence and actions inside Israel, including Judea, Samaria and Gaza.
The Israel and Foreigners Department responsible for counter intelligence and preventing subversion from within the Jewish sector. As violence amongst some elements of the Jewish residents of Judea/Samaria increased over the years, this branch has expanded its operations.
The Protective Security Department responsible for protecting government officials, embassies and strategic assets inside Israel.
The organization over the years has been embroiled in a few controversies which is not surprising given the large set of responsibilities it carries. On a DAILY basis its activities prevent terrorist attacks from taking place at numerous places across the country. Earlier in its existence it was successful in uncovering foreign spies inside Israel. Recently no less than 10 Jewish Israelis have been arrested based on Shin Bet intelligence for spying on behalf of Iran. In the mid 1980s the Agency was accused of killing two Arab terrorists who attempted a hijacking of a bus full of Israeli civilians after the terrorists were taken in custody. Those involved were found to lie in front of an independent commission set up to investigate. Subsequently they resigned. Up until October 7, 2023 the agency’s biggest failure was their inability to protect Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin when he was assassinated in 1995. Inside Israel there have been all kinds of conspiracy theories spread about how the Shin Bet had planted agents within some of the radical far right Jewish groups to which Rabin’s assassin belonged.
The Agency does have a system of checks and balances. In 2002 a law was passed that brought the Agency under the purview of the Knesset Foreign And Security Committee. The Government’s Legal Advisor approves individual operations of the Agency while its Director has regular committee briefings with the designated members of the Knesset Committees on a regular basis behind closed doors, much like the security agencies in the USA have regular briefings with Senate sub committees.
Ronen Bar, the current Shin Bet Director, was appointed to his current position by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in 2021 and approved by the Government cabinet at the time. The guy is very well qualified for the position. He served in special forces in the IDF, holds a BA in Political Science from Tel Aviv University and an MA in Public Management from Harvard University (that was when a degree from Harvard meant something). He is fluent in Hebrew, English and Arabic. He has been within the Shin Bet since 1993 and worked his way up through the ranks of the agency.
You might expect that his organization carries primary responsibility for the failures on October 7. 2023. And you would be right. Bar announced soon after the outbreak of the war that it was his intention to resign, taking responsibility for the intelligence failures, but would do so when the time for investigations came. There was a small internal investigation within Shin Bet but nothing comprehensive as of yet. Bar claims that he advised Prime Minister Netanyahu on numerous occasions that the money enabled but the Government to come from Qatar to Hamas was feeding the military designs of Hamas and was dangerous. Netanyahu claims that the Shin Bet Director advised him only days before the outbreak of the attack that Hamas was distracted and not an imminent threat. I do not think we will know the real truth until an independent State Commissioned investigation is launched. Such an investigation has taken place after nearly every war and many corrections are made throughout the IDF, security agencies and government in the aftermath that have been very healthy for the country. But this Government is blocking the appointment of an independent commissions because it is done by appointment from the President of the Supreme Court, who is disliked by this Government.
The main reason that the intelligence of the Shin Bet in Gaza is so poor is that Hamas has ruthlessly killed many of its own citizens it accuses of providing information to Israel. Yahya Sinwar was put in Israeli prisons until his release in 2011 for killing Arabs in Gaza, not Jews in Israel. On his release he conducted an absolutely ruthless murder campaign killing many he suspected of being informants, not just killing them but torturing them. The Shin Bet intelligence in Judea/Samaria is much better with a much stronger network of informants. So it should not be a shock that the Shin Bet had limited insight into the real plans of Hamas.
Ronen Bar has been one of the principals involved in the hostage negotiations until recently when Netanyahu removed him from that role. Netanyahu accused Bar of being too weak a negotiator with Hamas and he wanted someone “stronger” in the role.
One of the agency’s responsibilities which is currently causing much of the controversy is that it is mandated with supervising the security of the Prime Minister’s Office and must report on suspicious activity that violates the interests of the state. Prime Minister Netanyahu insists that the agency has been lax in uncovering the many leaks that emerge from his cabinet meetings, including the previous war cabinet. I am not at all sure that containing leaks such as this is part of the responsibility of the Shin Bet. Moreover, some of these leaks were deliberately enabled by Netanyahu. As you may remember, Israel came up with a 3 phase plan for a hostage/ceasefire deal back in about May, 2024. The war cabinet gave the Israeli negotiators a set of instructions on the range of negotiations over a few of the key issues, one of them being the minimum number of hostages. There were only 4 people in that meeting. Yet far right leader Bezalel Smotrich announced to the press within 2 days of that secret meeting intimate details of what was discussed. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Minister Benny Gantz and Minister Gadi Eizenkot dislike Smotrich immensely. So that only leaves Prime Minister Netanyahu as the one who leaked the details knowing that the release of them to the press would blow up the negotiations.
Well now the big issue is Qatargate. Back in January I reported on these posts that an organization called MEMRI had uncovered documented evidence that members of Netanyahu’s office, close members to the Prime Minister, were given funds by the Qatari Government, in the middle of the war, to “provide favorable press coverage” for the Qataris. Well the recipients of these payments know nothing about PR. Well now the Shin Bet has announced that it is leading an investigation and has found evidence, beyond what MEMRI uncovered, substantiating these claims. And it is for this reason that Ronen Bar insists that he is being dismissed for the purpose of stopping this investigation.
A week ago the Cabinet met and voted to support the Prime Minister in dismissing Ronen Bar. All the opposition parties filed petitions with the Supreme Court in an effort to block the firing of Bar. So far the Supreme Court has put a “stay” in the ability of the Prime Minister to fire Bar, but is allowing the Prime Minister to interview potential replacements. It is my expectation (hope?) that the court will insist on sequestering the evidence gathered so far by the Shin Bet to determine if it has substance. And if it does it should block the firing and allow the Shin Bet to complete its investigation. Stay tuned as this is not likely to end anytime soon.
IDF/Government - Judicial Reform
Back in 2023 huge protests broke out across Israel due to an aggressive set of legislation being pushed by a few members of this Government to “reform” the Israeli Judicial system which the Government claims has overstepped its bounds in restricting legislation it found “unreasonable”, overthrowing basic laws passed by the Knesset and being overly aggressive in defending human rights. I am going to provide some background so you understand but first there is a basic principle you need to understand. Israel does not have a constitution. David Ben Gurion had promised there would be a commission to draft a constitution at the founding of the state, but he never delivered on that promise. There have been numerous attempts to rectify this with draft created by various think tanks in the country. But the likelihood that any of them would pass through a divided government under constant security threats is nil.
So rather than push for a full Constitution, the Knesset has evolved a system of passing “Basic Laws”. If a piece of legislation is declared as either being a “Basic Law” or an amendment to a “Basic Law” then it carries special merit. But passing such a law does not require a super majority of the Knesset, which in my opinion it should. That way, once it passes, it would require a similar super majority to overrule it. Then, with time, something resembling fundamental laws of the state would emerge.
Another thing you need to understand is that Israel is a Parliamentary Democracy modeled after Great Britain. Political parties are formed by a collection of individuals that then run for seats in the Parliament. There are 120 seats in the Knesset. A party must gain at least 3.4% of the popular vote to qualify to have any members of its party sitting in the Parliament. So parties can have as few as 4-5 seats. After an election the leading party is asked by the President (in the UK it is the king/queen) to form a government. Then that leader meets with the likely leaders of the other parties to negotiate over what pieces of legislation/policy are most important for them. Then legal contracts are signed between the leading party and the smaller parties forming the coalition. For each piece of legislation agreed to in these contracts, leaders of each of the coalition parties insist that members of their party vote with the coalition. Legally, it is possible for a member of a party to vote against the coalition. But doing so would end his/her political career. Then, in addition, the leader of the largest party negotiates with the other parties over who will take ministerial heads over the various ministries in the Government - Defense, Foreign Affairs, Finance, Interior, etc. These are also a part of the contracts signed. So in the end you have an Executive Branch, led by the cabinet, consisting of the leaders of the same parties that constitute the legislative branch, the Knesset. That means that the only true check and balance in the political system is between the Judicial branch over the Government. It is my opinion that it would make more sense if it was a law that the ministerial positions could not be held by a member of the Knesset, but even that would not provide a true check and balance.
Finally, the last thing you need to understand before I get into the current events is that the Israeli Judicial System is led by the Supreme Court. Like in the USA they are then largely responsible for the appointments to the lower courts. Court Justices, including members of the Supreme Court, must retire at retirement age. This is a major advantage over the US system, but there are many disadvantages. From 1995 through 2006 the Supreme Court was led by Aharon Barak who aggressively pursued blocking and forcing revisions in legislation. Many claim that he overstepped the bounds of the jurisdiction of the Supreme Court. Many on the right wing are upset with many of the judgements rendered by the court. It was during this period that the Second Intifada was raging. In reality, he probably did overextend jurisdiction. However, in a country without a constitution that is not hard to do.
So now into the details… Back in 2023 the legislation being pushed by the government would have enabled the government to hold a vote in the Knesset to overrule any decision rendered by the Supreme Court. I had the opportunity to meet with one of the proponents of this bill, Simcha Rotman, at a parlor meeting of a friend of my wife’s prior to the last election. Trying to be polite I stood up and challenged him on how his proposed legislation would maintain any sense of check/balance on the government. All I got back was a lecture from an idiot on how the country has no constitution. I simply told him that the medicine was more dangerous than the disease. That idiot is now the Chairman of the Judicial Committee in the Knesset. Well the Government stopped that piece of legislation after many of the reservists started threatening not to report to IDF.
But now there is a new piece of legislation that got passed just today in the Knesset. It was the result of a compromise between Justice Minister Levin and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar. Sa’ar was Justice Minister in a previous government and pushed through some reforms in the Judicial system that were mild changes. I think that it is worth saying that MOST people in the country are in favor of Judicial Reform as it is sorely needed. But to make such changes it would be best if there was a consensus including members of the opposing parties. But in the current politically charged atmosphere such a consensus is not in the bounds of reality.
The piece of legislation passed today governs the members of the committee responsibly for nominating/approving new members of the Supreme Court as existing members retire. The Supreme Court consists of 15 judges, one of whom is President. For nearly its entire existence the President is determined by the Selection Committee and it has been the Justice with the most seniority in the Court. Until today the law governing the members of the selection committee was passed as part of a “Basic Law” in 1984. According to this law the committee consists of 9 members - the Justice Minister (Chairman), 1 other minister chosen by the cabinet, 2 Knesset members (usually 1 from the governing coalition and 1 from the opposition), 2 members of the Israeli Bar Association, the Chief Justice and 2 other members from the Judges on the Supreme Court who are generally chosen based on seniority.
The current Government insists that the composition of this committee does not represent the will of the people since the majority, 5, are not elected in any democratic process - 3 judges and 2 members of the Bar Association. Appointments to the court, in that previous law, must pass by at least 7 members of the committee. The law passed today changes much of this. Firstly, it needs to be said that this new law will not go into effect until the next government comes into office at either the end of 2026 or before should this government fall. Secondly, this law is the result of some compromises made between members of this Government. The new law replaces the two committee members representing the Israeli Bar Association with one representative appointed by the ruling Government and one by the opposition party. So, in this new selection committee, there are still 9 members and still 3 members from the existing court, like before. In addition, there are 2 members from the opposition parties in the Knesset, 2 members from the ruling coalition, the Justice Minister and one other member of the ruling cabinet. And in this new law a simple majority of members of the committee are needed to approve the appointment. So, in theory, the two members of the opposition could come together with the 3 members of the Supreme Court to defeat an appointment pushed by the Government. Moreover, the new law requires that any new appointment MUST be approved by at least 1 member from the opposition AND 1 member from the ruling Government. Beyond appointments to the Supreme Court, appointments in lower courts require the approval of at least 1 judge, 1 member of the opposition and 1 member of the government. Finally, there is a provision in case there is a deadlock. If a year passes with at least 2 vacancies on the Supreme Court and the committee cannot agree on an appointment during the period, committee members from the opposition will nominate 3 candidates, 3 members of the ruling coalition will nominate 3 candidates and each much select 1 from the list of the opposing group.
Overall, there are a reasonable set of checks and balances in this new system. At least that is my opinion. So, in my view, all the screams of this legislation being “anti-democratic” in the streets of Israel is largely uncalled for. If the legislation had removed the members of the Israeli Bar and replaced them with members of the Government it would have been a disaster. But this compromise, all in all, is not too bad… at least in my view.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
I have been writing a lot about the war efforts and political issues. Well the Israeli High Tech scene is still vibrant. Last week Google announced that it was buying Israeli Cybersecurity Company Wiz for a record $32B. And this article describes how the high tech sector continues to move forward in Israel. What is not written a lot about is the fact that there are quite a few Israeli Defense companies doing well by resupplying the IDF. And now there is expected to be a significant increase in defense procurements in Europe that are likely to benefit in a spillover into Israeli defense companies.
There are conflicting reports coming from Lebanon. This article describes a scenario for peace between Israel and Lebanon. But when confronted publicly the Prime Minister denies the possibility. But again, it is my view that Lebanon would join if there were an agreement with Saudi Arabia…
And finally… do you have a spare bedroom you can spare for a former terrorist? Apparently, Egypt struggling to find homes for the terrorists being released from Israeli prisoners as part of the hostage/ceasefire deals.