Today’s Image
These are Israeli fans of the basketball team, Hapoel Tel Aviv. They won the Eurocup Basketball Championship this week by defeating Gran Canaria on their home turf. Gran Canaria is a strong team from Spain. This means that they and Maccabi Tel Aviv will both compete for the Euroleague Championships next season. Th last time something like this happened was 48 years ago.
Casualties
There have been no IDF or civilian casualties in the past 10 weeks.
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
Last week 3 rockets were fired into Israel from Gaza. All were intercepted. Palestinian Islamic Jihad took credit. Yesterday, Saturday, Hamas launched three rockets towards the Israeli border community of Nir Yitzhak. All rockets were intercepted without damage or injuries. The rockets were launched from the Nuiserat town in central Gaza that has been largely untouched, to date, in the fighting.
Last week the Houthis fired a total of 4 ballistic missiles towards Israel. Two fell in Saudi Arabia and one fell inside Yemen without interception. The fourth was intercepted outside Israeli airspace. On Friday, the Houthis launched two drones towards Israel. One was intercepted over the Dead Sea and the other was downed over Jordanian air space causing slight damage in one small town but no injuries. Then today sirens went off in much of the center of the country due to two inbound ballistic missiles that were intercepted outside Israeli airspace, but shrapnel from one landed in Israel.
Gaza Front
IDF ground forces continue their operations in Gaza. Troops have completely surrounded the southern city of Rafah and are encouraging any remaining residents who returned during the phase 1 ceasefire to leave for the humanitarian zones. There are neighborhoods in this area that were previously left untouched by IDF troops. They are now going to root out residual Hamas forces from these areas. Troops are also starting to move into Gaza City from the north. As the troops move further in to Gaza the Government continues to repeat that a ceasefire can be restarted should negotiations over hostages release makes progress. The Government is doing what it can to position the current offensive as the best way to force Hamas into a more reasonable negotiating position vis-a-vis the remaining 24 living hostages.
At the same time targeted assassinations continue as do the ongoing discovery and destruction of Hamas facilities and tunnels. Today, for example, an IDF drone struck a moving car near the city of Deir al-Balah that was carrying a deputy Hamas commander, Ubayd Allah Na’im al-Hadhud Musa, who (according to the IDF) appears to be in charge of a contingent of snipers. Here you can see videos of the IDF destroying a 1.2 km tunnel in northern Gaza. Nearby troops uncovered a small armory where Hamas was storing mines, which was also destroyed. In the same article there is a video of a few Hamas operatives planting land mines (IEDs).
Today, Sunday, the IDF issued an advanced warning to staff at the Al-Ahli Hospital in Deir al-Balah to evacuate in advance of an air strike. Subsequent to the evacuation two missiles fired by the IDF hit a building at the medical center destroying the Hamas operations facility, damaging the emergency department in the process. This is the same hospital that was hit by a misfired Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket back in October, 2023 that was blamed on Israel. The International Press broadcast the Hamas fabrication that over 500 people were killed by an IDF missile. You can read more about the hospital and what happened there here.
Lebanon Front
IDF troops still maintain their positions in the five outposts adjacent to the Blue Line border with Lebanon. But progress is being reported from within Lebanon by the Lebanese Army in taking over control of about ½ of Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon. No Israeli Air Force strikes inside Lebanon have been reported in the past week. But IDF intelligence has informed the US and French mediation teams that they are compiling evidence that Hezbollah is rebuilding an arms manufacturing plant underground in southern Beirut. Israel informed representatives that it will not tolerate this effort by Hezbollah.
Syria Front
IDF troops maintain their positions inside Syria, gathering intelligence and monitoring the situation to prevent any militias in southern Syria from gaining enough strength to launch an attack against Israel. In the past week no Israeli Air Force attacks on military positions of the former regime have been reported.
Yemen Front
US forces continue their aerial assault on Houthi positions. These attacks must be having some impact as the legitimate Yemeni Government is reportedly preparing to try and retake the Houthi controlled port of Hodeida. This could only happen if the Houthis have been significantly weakened.
Turkiye/Iran/Iraq/Saudi Arabia
About one week ago the Trump Administration announced that it would be starting direct negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program and the imposed sanctions. The first meeting in these negotiations took place in Muscat, the capital of Oman. There appeared to be disagreement over whether these talks were to be direct or indirect with the US Administration insisting that they would be direct. Remember, the two countries do not have diplomatic relations. The talks started with a direct meeting between President Trump’s special negotiator and Iran’s Foreign Minister. But soon after, it appeared that discussions changed to consist of messages being shuffled between the two parties by diplomats from Oman. Yet, both parties seemed to be encouraged by this first set of meetings. These initial meetings are all about deciding on the range of issues to be discussed. Iran wants to limit discussions only to its nuclear program and the release of economic sanctions. Here you can read what Oman’s Foreign Minister had to say about the first set of meetings. This report from Reuters was a little less optimistic.
Representatives from Israel and Turkiye have been meeting in Baku, Azerbaijan. Both countries have close relations with Azerbaijan. The main purpose of the meetings is to come up with a system of de-escalating possible future conflicts that might arise between the nations regarding Syria. Turkiye has a close relationship with the new government in Damascus and is largely responsible for their assumption of power. Turkiye expects to have a major role in the economic and military development of Syria going forward. Among Israel’s fears are that it is trading one nefarious power, Iran, for another, Turkiye. You can read more here. So far the talks are showing promise.
Reports are emerging that the US and Saudi Arabia are coming to an agreement that will permit the USA to assist Saudi Arabia in the development of a “civilian” nuclear energy program. So far the Israeli Government has made no public statement about these reports.
Protests/Politics
Protests continue in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and elsewhere insisting that the Government reach a deal to release the hostages. The number of attendees is about the same as normal.
Hostages/Ceasefire
There are rumors circulating that a new deal may be in the works. It seems that there is a proposal circulating from Egypt that Hamas may be willing to release another 8-10 living hostages in return for a 2 month ceasefire with a return to large shipments of aid into Gaza. Previously Israel was demanding 11 and Hamas offering 5. Other terms being negotiated include the number of , and type of, prisoners to be released by Israel in exchange. National Strategic Advisor Ron Dermer is now in charge of the negotiations from Israel. There is no sign that he is imminently traveling to Egypt or Qatar at this point. Egypt seems to be leading this round of discussions.
Hamas released a live video of Idan Alexander, an Israeli-American citizen, being held hostage in Gaza. His parents are Israelis who moved to the US years ago and received citizenship. Idan was serving on base as a Lone Soldier on the day that Hamas attacked, October 7, 2023. Much of the negotiating going on at the moment seems to be focused around the release of this young man.
IDF/Government
There have now been two instances where groups of IDF reservists have issued statements proclaiming that the government should make the release of hostages a priority over pursuing the war effort in Gaza. One group included former Air Force pilots. The IDF responded by dismissing the reservists from their positions. The other group consisted mostly of former intelligence workers. They too were dismissed from their positions. It seems that everyone in this country seems to know best how to conduct negotiations with Hamas, without being privy to any of the details.
International
Last week I reported that French President Emmanuel Macron was visiting Egypt in order to insert himself into a process in which he currently has no influence. Well, in usual style Macron left Egypt announcing that France could recognize a Palestinian State (presumably like Ireland and Spain) in the coming months. I fail to see what he accomplishes in doing this. Perhaps the Arab vote in France has reached the point where it strongly influences policies and elections. In any case, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s son, Yair, followed up after the President’s announcement with a “tweet” saying “Screw You”. Yair Netanyahu has a reputation in Israel for making outrageous claims and statements against anyone critical of his father. I believe that PM’s son has some real emotional or mental deficiency. So today the Prime Minister came to the defense of his son saying that he regretted the style of his son’s tweet, but the statements from President Macron constitute a terrible mistake. It must be hard having a son who is so reckless. You can read more on Macron’s x.com account here.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
The British Newspaper The Telegraph posted this analysis on how Hamas has been lying throughout the war about the actual casualties and how the IDF has been minimizing civilian casualties.
Here is a blog post I found interesting that is related to the recent Trade Tariff threat from President Trump. Israel has learned to thrive in the globalized economy. If countries retreat from this, the small countries like Israel will find that they are unable to provide for all the products needed in for their economy by themselves.