Today’s Image
Yesterday, a diver was killed after being attacked by a small school of sharks off the coast of Hadera, a coastal city just south of Haifa, on the Mediterranean Coast. This is an extremely rare occurrence. Shark sightings are rare. They are attracted to the warm waters associated with Israel’s power plants located in a few locations on its Mediterranean coastline. The diver, Barak Tzach - 45 (Z’’L), was documenting the sharks on camera which he has been known to do in the past. You can read more details here along with a video of the incident. The people recording the video are shouting that the sharks are eating Tzach and you can see the blood. Before being declared dead, police managed to recover several body parts that have been sent to a forensics lab for confirmation.
And perhaps to give you a glimpse to just how “sick” much of society is in the Middle East, here you can see several “Photoshopped” images of a Hamas shark on the prowl that were created and circulated across social media web sites in the Arab world. Sick, sick, sick…
Casualties
There was one IDF casualty during fighting in Gaza this past Saturday - Warrant Officer G’haleb Sliman Alnasasra - 35 (Z’’L). He is a Bedouin from the southern Israeli town of Rahat.
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
Last week 3 rockets were fired into Israel from Gaza. All were intercepted. This week 2 rockets were fired and fell in open areas. Earlier this week the Houthis took credit for firing a ballistic missile and a drone towards Israel. They did the same last week. Both missiles were intercepted outside Israeli airspace. However, the drones never made it near Israel. This pattern has become commonplace. Houthis claim that they sent a drone to attack Israel but it never seems to arrive.
Gaza Front
Fighting in Gaza continues. Most of the operations are missile attacks called in by ground forces targeting specific senior Hamas officials or Hamas operatives congregating. Tunnels have been uncovered that were missed during previous operations. Here is a video of a recently uncovered tunnel that was destroyed. In the southern part of Gaza IDF troops have carved out a second corridor that enabled them to isolate the southern city of Rafah where Hamas fighters returned during the recent ceasefire. Troops are now moving from that perimeter in “clearing” operations to eliminate whatever Hamas fighters remain there. Tunnels are being discovered during these operations and are being destroyed. Many tunnels were left during earlier operations because the IDF did not possess sufficient explosives to eliminate them all. Much of these armaments have been replenished so the IDF can now go back in to locate then destroy the tunnels.
IDF troops are also massing in the north of Gaza as they prepare to enter Gaza City. Previously the IDF conducted operations inside the Jabaliya neighborhood in the northern part of Gaza City, actually more than once. But now it appears that the army is starting to prepare to enter the heart of Gaza City for search and destroy missions. Since much of Gaza City was left untouched it can be expected that large tunnel complexes will be uncovered.
Lebanon Front
The IDF is maintaining its positions at the five outposts adjoining the Blue Line following the armistice line between Israel and Lebanon. It continues to operate on special aerial missions against specific Hezbollah officials, Hezbollah arms storage facilities and smuggling operations. While Hezbollah insists that they will consider disarming only after Israel evacuates its positions in Lebanon, I am certain that this is just not going to happen. Israel knows better than to put any trust into what Hezbollah says. Meanwhile, the Lebanese Army continues to make progress in taking control in southern Lebanon and former Hezbollah positions. But the debate in Lebanon whether the Army should have a monopoly on arms rages on. In normal countries there is no such debate, but Lebanon is not normal and Hezbollah insists that it will not disarm… one of the conditions of the ceasefire. So this situation is likely to persist for months if not years into the future.
Yemen Front
The USA Centcom forces have requested that Israel no launch any attacks against the Houthis in Yemen as the US Air Force is actively engaged in routine attacks there. But the view from Israel is that the targets that the US is attacking are not the ones needed to end the Houthi’s disruption of the shipping lanes. There are two Iranian electronic surveillance ships anchored off the Yemen shore. They are directing the fire of the drones and missiles launched by the Houthis. So, in reality, these aerial missiles and drones are manufactured, funded, deployed and directed by Iran, not the Houthis. For months now I have been asking why the US nor Israel has destroyed these two Iranian radar ships anchored near Yemen.
Syria Front
IDF forces in Syria remain in their positions. Concrete bunkers and facilities have been put in place inside the buffer zone carved out of Syria. From the looks of these facilities the IDF intends to remain in place for some time. Government officials from Turkiye and Israel met in Azerbaijan 10 days ago for the purpose of creating a system of alerts between each other so that the two armies do not come into direct contact while operating inside Syria. I am not overly optimistic that this system will work. Turkiye sees its enemies as the Kurds and ISIS forces. Israel sees not just ISIS but many other fanatic islamic muslim brotherhood groups as its enemies. When Israel and Russia had a system in place it worked because Israel could rely on Russia not to provide its targets advance notification. The same cannot be said of Turkey. But, some form of system can be put into place.
Aid
Since the end of the Phase 1 hostage/ceasefire deal, the IDF has started to restrict aid entering Gaza. Enough aid entered Gaza during the ceasefire that reports indicate that according to UN specifications for daily minimum caloric intake that Gaza should easily last six months without additional aid. The government is using aid as a negotiation tool in its arsenal with Hamas and Gaza. Despite what you will hear, International rules of law do not require Israel to provide aid to a population at war. However, the government has announced that it is starting to prepare infrastructure for the delivery of aid strictly to the carved out humanitarian zones in south western Gaza. Unlike before this policy will restrict any aid from entering other areas AND the IDF will be heavily involved in the distribution of the aid, once it restarts.
Hostage/Ceasefire Deal
Background negotiations continue at a low level. No movement is expected. The Israeli government is expecting that its current offensive will apply the needed pressure to force Hamas to mollify its negotiating position. This is a likely outcome but could come at the cost of living hostage lives. The deal “on the table” involves the release of a little less than ½ of the remaining living hostages in return for a 2 month ceasefire, large amounts of aid and a significant number of terrorists released from Israeli prisons.
Protests/Politics
The regular demonstrations in what has become known as “Hostage Square” in Tel Aviv continue. The number of attendees is steady, neither increasing nor decreasing. Often there are smaller demonstrations, including Jerusalem, across the country. At this point there is little to distinguish between anti-government demonstrations and the hostage family demonstrations. For all practical purposes they have merged into one. However, this does not mean that all hostage families attend these demonstrations demanding that the government capitulate to Hamas demands, including their demand that they remain in power and NOT disarm. There are less “noisy” hostage families that also urge the government to continue to push its offensive against Hamas. They are less numerous than the loud demonstrations in Tel Aviv.
At this point the current government has about 14 months left to its tenure before new elections are required. Within the current atmosphere there is nothing on the horizon that appears capable of causing this government to fall and advance elections before that time period. The ultra-orthodox draft exemption bill is still in committee at the Knesset. The Senior Likud leader, Yuli Edelstein, leads that committee and continues to promise that whatever bill emerges from committee it will deal with the draft properly and fairly, including inputs from opposition members. Others in the ruling coalition insist that it does not matter what comes out of committee since the government will pass something that will make the ultra-orthodox political parties happy. Meanwhile, the process drags on and on and on and on…
IDF/Government
As you might recall, the IDF struck a medical facility about two weeks that ended up killing about 14 Arabs that Hamas claimed were medical staff and the IDF initially claimed were individuals doubling as both. Previously this has been a common phenomenon. But, a subsequent investigation into the incident has shown that this time the IDF did, in fact, make a major operational mistake. The IDF soldiers involved did not follow proper procedures which involved calling in for permission before firing into the building and the soldiers involved attempted a cover up which was later uncovered. Disciplinary action is being planned once a full investigation is complete.
Meanwhile, Hamas is now threatening senior Gaza medical officials that are requesting that the terror organization cease using medical facilities for its military operations. Here you are read about recent threats coming from Hamas directed at such medical officials. And you can read more about it here.
Prime Minister Netanyahu went on National Television three days ago, on Saturday night, to address the nation. There were several intertwined messages that he focuses on. First, as it pertains to Gaza he remarked that those people participating in the anti-government, hostage demonstrations that are demanding that the Government agree to Hamas demands only to return to war once the hostages were released were “delusional”. Those of you following my for some time will recall that I have been making the same statement, worded more diplomatically, for some time now. I said that Hamas was not stupid and was not going to agree to long term cease fire without a set of international guarantees that would involve the US Government. Netanyahu made this statement within the context of a longer message in order to support his argument that the dual goals of removing Hamas as a governing power and securing the release of the hostages were consistent with each other and not in competition with each other. Another one of the messages was that Hamas rejected the most recent hostage/ceasefire proposal based on Chief US Negotiator Steve Witicoff’s most recent suggestions on getting around the impasse. It involved an offer of a 2 month ceasefire with a large jump in aid in exchange for 11 living hostages and large numbers of prisoners in Israeli jails. As a consequence the IDF is starting to build up its forces in expectation of a large entry of troops into Gaza City and other parts of Gaza. Despite nearly 18 months of war much of Gaza City has remained untouched by the IDF. In order to launch this operation the IDF needs to call up reserves and this is proving controversial.
Some of the reservists, and their families, are showing resistance in reporting for duty. Many reservists have served more than 260 days of active duty in the last 18 months. Their businesses, families are suffering. Some are insisting that the government agree to the long term ceasefire and recover the living hostages. Some are claiming that the only reason that the Prime Minister wants to continue the war is to keep his government in power. So, the Prime Minister needs to “make his case” to the people in order to ramp up the war. And that is one of the key reasons he addressed the nation.
The irony in all this is that there is a bit of truth in all this. Netanyahu is right in that to give in to Hamas now will not enable the IDF to restart the war and the opposition is right that all this serves the interests of a government wanting to stay in power.
Israeli elections will be held in the winter of 2026 unless this coalition falls apart earlier. At one point I thought that the ultra-orthodox draft exemption would bring this government down. But it now appears like they are successfully stalling bringing the issue to a vote in the Knesset. If that continues they are likely to survive until the next election. With reservists being called into active duty for so many days in the past year, giving any segment of society an exemption is very, very unpopular.
In his address to the nation, Netanyahu also described the situation vis-a-vis Iran and the newly started negotiations between the USA and Iran. Netanyahu started by doing what he does best by claiming the he is the only true leader looking after the interests of the country. He claimed that all those critical of his policies were the same ones that refused to act against Iran in the past. This is a direct “attack” on Bennie Gantz who was the Chief of Staff when Netanyahu was Prime Minister and Ehud Barak the Defense Minister. Gantz refused to follow the directives of Netanyahu and Barak.
The reality is that the newly established negotiations between the Trump Administration and the Islamic Republic are worrying many in the Israeli Defense establishment. There is much talk of modeling the “agreement” after that negotiated with the Libyan Qaddafi government years ago. In that agreement, Qaddafi agreed to dismantle the entire nuclear program and its infrastructure for the complete lifting of sanctions by the West. The Islamic Republic insists that it will not agree to such an arrangement. Short of that, many in the Israeli Security establishment believe that any agreement will not be too different from the Obama era JCPOA Agreement which is viewed as a disaster here. But the reality is that the Israeli government is not invited to participate in any way in these negotiations. Efforts are made to influence the US position but ultimately this will be an agreement between the USA and the Islamic Republic, unless negotiations ultimately blow up. Should an agreement be signed Israel will not be able to act against Iran’s nuclear facilities without putting its relationship with the USA in jeopardy, which is not going to happen. So outside of doing what it can to “influence” the US negotiators the Israeli defense establishment is sitting tight and hoping for the best…
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
Here you can read more about the lies that Hamas has been pushing regarding the casualty rates in Gaza. As you will remember I said from the beginning that I wouldn’t quote numbers coming from Hamas because they lie. Now it is becoming obvious to all that the bulk of casualties in Gaza are combatant aged males. So much for these lies propagated by the Ivy League students are the USA’s most prestigious universities about “genocide”.
And here is another great opinion/analysis from Ron Ben Yishai on the childish behavior of our far right government ministers in trying to direct the war effort from ignorance. In his well structure analysis he clearly favors his option 4 which involves a steadily increasing set of military operations and restricted aid in order to squeeze out more living hostages. My view is the same as his.
Those of you following me for some time will recall that I remarked previously on how the Muslim Brotherhood was making attempts to infiltrate Jordan not only to launch raids against Israel and smuggle arms to terrorists in Judea/Samaria (West Bank) but also overthrow the Hashemite Kingdom. This article, and there are many others, describes how the Kingdom has just launched a crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. You can also read it from the source… The Jordan Times here.