October 572

My 320th post on The War

Today’s Image

Israel is in the midst of fighting the most severe fire it has faced since the founding of the state. These fires were started by arsonists. The poster you see is a promotional image posted across Arab social media calling for residents of Judea/Samaria to ignite fires across Israel. Many people have had to evacuate their homes. All fires, including BBQs, are banned until further notice including celebrations of Israel Independence Day which started this evening, Wednesday April 30. Here you can see a video of Arabs in Samaria setting fire, in real time, to a farm. And you can read more here.

My View - Hostage Recovery vs. Hamas Removal

As we all know, on October 7, 2023 Hamas launched the most horrific attack against Jews since Nazi Germany. The very next day the Hamas spokesman in Beirut, Lebanon issued a statement declaring that this was the first such attack and it will be followed by many more. That same day protestors across USA University campuses initiated well coordinated demonstrations and encampments in support of the atrocities perpetrated by this terrorist organization funded by Qatar. By the end of that month, the IDF launched an offensive with these three goals set out by the government:

• remove Hamas as a military threat,

• remove Hamas as a governing power and

• secure the release of the hostages

without specifying an order or a priority. In the beginning of the war there were no inconsistencies between these goals and they had widespread support amongst Israeli society. In fact, the military pressure on Hamas during November, 2023 led to the major hostage and ceasefire release in December in which nearly half the living hostages were released. As the war proceeded, Hamas began to understand that the IDF would not stop until it (Hamas) was truly disabled. They recognized that continuing to hold the hostages was necessary in order to secure their own survival. So as the war dwelled on and the condition of the hostages deteriorated the relationship between the goals changed. Segments of Israeli society began to see the goals in conflict with one another, particularly by those previously disposed to oppose the government and its policies. Protests in support of the release of the hostages, over time, morphed into anti-government protests that on occasion became violent.

Yet, the current government and, in particular, its extreme right wing elements still see no conflict between these goals. They argue that only military pressure on Hamas will bring back the hostages. On the other hand the protestors in the streets and the anti-government forces argue that we should agree to Hamas’s terms, get the hostages back and then resume the war to finish off Hamas. The approach of the anti-government forces presumes that Hamas is stupid, which it is not. They are not going to release hostages unless there are iron clad guarantees by world powers preventing Israel from attacking Hamas. That is … not until Hamas rebuilds sufficiently to launch an attack at least as horrific as October 7 which it has promised its supporters, including those USA university students.

This fantasy promoted by those protestors in the streets of Tel Aviv every night is often combined with the argument that the cohesion of Israeli society relies on an unwritten pledge with its population:

We ask that you send your sons and daughters to serve in the IDF on the understanding that we will do whatever we can to bring them back in the event they are captured.

This is often the most compelling argument used by those opposing the decisions and priorities set by the government in its conduct of the war. They argue that this “understanding” has existed since the founding of the state and must continue in order to ensure the cohesion of the country. Without it, they argue, families might reconsider sending their loved ones to serve in the IDF.

The reality is that this argument is flawed. Throughout the period between Israel’s independence through the 1990s Israel’s policy was “We do not negotiate with terrorists”. This policy led to the 1976 Entebbe rescue. In 1972, Israeli officials criticized German officials for capitulating to the Black September terrorists that kidnapped/killed the Israeli Olympic athletes. During the era that the PLO was hijacking international aircraft, threatening to blow them up unless their demands were met, generally met the response that Israel would not negotiate. Yes, there were exchanges of soldiers held as prisoners after each major war including 1967 and 1973. But those wars were between nation states involved exchanges between uniformed soldiers. With a few minor exceptions the hostages being held by Hamas were not uniformed soldiers, were not actively fighting. They were children, women, elderly, etc. civilians taken from their homes, not the battlefield. Most of the prisoners being released by Israel as part of these exchanges were tried and convicted of violent crimes perpetrated on unarmed civilians, including violent terrorist attacks leading to the deaths of hundreds to thousands of innocents.

On June 25, 2006 Hamas terrorists crossed the border with Israel, killed two Israeli IDF soldiers and kidnapped Gilad Shalit, a low ranking soldier. That operation was planned and executed by Mohammed Sinwar, Yahya Sinwar’s brother. At the time Yahya Sinwar was serving a multiple life sentence in Israeli prison for the ruthless murder and torture of innocent Arab civilians in Gaza. Mohammed Sinwar demanded that in return for Shalit’s release that more than 1,000 convicted terrorists sitting in Israeli prisons be released, including his brother. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert refused to release so many terrorists and serious negotiations never ensued. Then, less than a month later on July 12, 2006 Hezbollah crossed the blue line separating Lebanon from Israel, killed three Israeli soldiers and kidnapped two. In return for the release of the captured Israeli soldiers Hezbollah demanded a large number of Hezbollah prisoners sitting in Israeli jails be released. Rather than negotiate, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert launched, with the support of nearly the entire country, the Second Lebanese War. There were no large protests or demonstrations in Tel Aviv demanding that Prime Minister Olmert cede to the terrorists demands in return for the two captured soldiers. Nor were opposition parties demanding that Olmert was compromising the societal agreement between it and the IDF. No, there was nearly unanimous support for the war effort.

So, who, when and what caused this change in policy? Between 2006 and 2011, Shalit’s family pitched a tent near the Prime Minister’s residence in Jerusalem maintaining a vigil throughout the period in an effort to garner support for the release of Gilad. Ehud Olmert remained as Prime Minister from 2006 (after Prime Minister Ariel Sharon went into a coma) until March, 2009 when he was charged with corruption due to kickbacks he was receiving as part of a major, controversial real estate project in Jerusalem while he was mayor. Throughout his time as Prime Minister he refused to agree to the terms of Hamas for the release of Gilad Shalit. Olmert was succeeded by Benjamin Netanyahu in the elections in 2009. In 2011, then Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, now one of the fiercest opponents of Netanyahu, agreed to the terms dictated by Hamas for the release of Gilad Shalit and released 1,027 terrorists from prison including many serving life sentences for the murder of hundreds of innocent Israeli civilians. This policy shift introduced by Prime Minister Netanyahu completely changed the dynamics of negotiations with terrorists kidnapping hostages. It was his policy, in large part, that has led us to the current predicament. It was Netanyahu who solidified that agreement and to this day he refuses to state publicly that it was this ill fated decision that now resulted in the ongoing policy of terrorists kidnapping Israeli civilians expecting thousands of terrorist prisoners in exchange.

Without stating it publicly, the government is attempting to establish a new policy that is intended to show the terrorists that kidnapping Israeli civilians leads to loss of territory, loss of governance, the elimination of leaders and the full wrath of the IDF. The major risk in executing the operation to establish this new policy is the lives of the remaining living hostages… all 24 of them. No one in the government publicly states that this is the policy but it is hard to interpret their actions any other way. In pursuing this goal, it is the hope of the government to put Hamas into a weaker negotiating position that forces them to release nearly half the remaining living hostages without having to agree to a long term ceasefire that will limit the IDF’s ability to operate in Gaza.

As part of the Oslo Agreement and its subsequent set of Agreements the Palestinian Authority was supposed to maintain security responsibility for all areas A and B in Gaza and Judea/Samaria (West Bank). But since the Second Intifada, the IDF had to ultimately take security responsibility and has maintained it due to the PA’s inability and lack of interest to enforce security on its population. When Israel evacuated Gaza completely in 2005, the PA assumed security responsibility for a short period of time until Hamas, in 2007, took control violently, after murdering many PA officials.

In any future arrangement, Israel will need to maintain security control over Gaza as well in order to prevent Hamas, or another terrorist organization, to grow in power and take control. Even Yair Golan, leader of the far left leaning political party The Democrats, which assumed this name after merging the Meretz and Labour Parties together, makes this argument That is right, the most left leaning political party in Israel insists that Israel must maintain security control over Gaza in any future arrangement. Yet Yair Golan is one of the most vociferous opponents to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and speaks at the hostage family demonstrations routinely. Like Yair Lapid (leader of opposition party Yesh Atid), he is being hypocritical by insisting that the government agree to Hamas demands in order to retrieve the hostages while leaving Hamas in power. You can’t leave Hamas in power if you argue that the IDF must maintain security responsibility for Gaza. This is the hypocrisy of the opposition against this government and many of the demonstrators participating in the nightly anti-government protests. They demand that the government cede to all Hamas demands in order to secure release of the hostages. As a consequence Hamas would remain the military power in Gaza, rearm and repeat the October 7 attack in the future. Yet, these political leaders also contend that the IDF must maintain security control of Gaza.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has proven more than once that he is largely to blame for the current situation. He has been Prime Minister of the country, with the exception of one year, since 2009. For more than 16 years he has been at the helm of the country, setting its policies, including::

• trading large numbers of imprisoned terrorists for Gilad Shalit,

• enabling Qatar to send large sums of money to Hamas that was used to enforce its control over Gaza and build its army of terrorists,

• permitting his staff to accept payments from Qatar during a period of war against one of its key allies - Hamas,

• preventing his Defense Ministers from taking on Hamas in order to reduce/eliminate its influence,

• leaking secrets to the press in order to serve his own personal interests,

• purging any talented, independent thinking ministers from his government that did not remain 100% loyal to his bidding,

• refusing to set up a state commission of inquiry to what led to October 7,

• putting his own interests ahead of those of the nation and

• blaming everyone around him for his own failed policies.

You can’t be running the country for 16 years, take credit for the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and blame everyone else around you for those things that went wrong. The man should step down in disgrace. And the irony of it all is that Netanyahu used his typical dirty tricks to bring down the previous government led by Naftali Bennett/Yair Lapid. He promised cabinet posts to two members of Bennett’s Party if they defected during his term of office. Had Netanyahu played his usual dirty game, Yair Lapid would have been Prime Minister on October 7, 2023 and he would have non stop blamed that government for the attack.

There are two leaders who have been extremely critical of the Prime Minister and his policies, yet have neither participated in the hostage family demonstrations nor called for an unconditional agreement with Hamas for the purpose of retrieving all the living hostages - Avidgor Lieberman, leader of the Yisrael Beitanu Party , and Naftali Bennett, former Prime Minister. Both served as Defense Ministers in governments led by Netanyahu. In their capacities as Defense Ministers they both took a much more aggressive policy regarding Hamas and Gaza but were blocked from implementing it by Netanyahu. There is a reason why both talented men, and many others, have left Likud while Netanyahu has been Prime Minister. Netanyahu cannot deal with bright, independent thinkers who challenge him. So he does what he can to undermine them. He can only work with those who are subservient to his leadership. In Lieberman’s first month in office as Defense Minister he prepared a detailed briefing describing how Hamas could execute an attack like that on October 7. He wrote that report in 2016 as incoming Defense Minister. In recent testimony emanating from the Israeli Security Agency, Shin Bet, it has been revealed that Prime Minister Netanyahu attempted to have the Agency use a minor event that took place during Bennett’s term of service in the elite commando unit, Tzeyert Matkal, to have him disqualified as Defense Minister. This has led Bennett to recently state:

I wanted to eliminate Hamas as a fighting force and Netanyahu wanted to eliminate me.

Like everyone else in Israeli Society, I find it difficult to criticize the hostage families that are leading the daily anti-government demonstrations because of what they have had to endure. However, the reality of the situation is that Hamas will never return all the hostages. The government may be able to secure the release of more, but NOT all. The government must prosecute the war until Hamas is defeated as a fighting force and unable to govern Gaza. And an independent State appointed and independent commission must conduct a full investigation into the circumstances that led to October 7, 2023 and the conduct of the subsequent war. Netanyahu should stand before the Israeli public, admit that his policies largely led to the events surrounding October 7, 2023… and then step down as Prime Minister. He cannot blame others, although he tries on a daily basis, for the policies that led to the Hamas attack. Then, hopefully, new leadership can emerge, perhaps heavily influenced by the reservists who served so bravely in this war, that can properly unify and lead this country.

Casualties

The IDF reported one casualty on April 25 in northern Gaza: Captain Ido Voloch - 21 (Z’’L), a commander in the armored corp (tanks). On the previous day Master Sgt, (RES.) Asaf Cafri - 26 (Z’’L) was also killed in battle. He too was in the armored corp.

Rockets & Missiles & Drones

Last week one ballistic missile was fired by the Houthis towards Israel and intercepted outside Israeli air space.

Gaza Front

The IDF appears to be close to having full control over the entire area surrounding the southern city of Rafah. There are rumors that they are preparing the area to house many of the Gazan’s inside the current humanitarian zone due west of there. Individual assassinations continue as well.

Lebanon Front

Earlier this week the Israeli Air Force struck an Hezbollah missile assembly plant located inside an underground facility buried under a building in southern Beirut, Lebanon. So the IDF campaign against Hezbollah continues and will continue for many months into the future.

Syria Front

In a very dangerous set of events earlier this week members of one of the islamic jihadi groups in Syria launched a set of attacks on the Druze Community in Sahnaya, a neighborhood on the outskirts of Damascus. Subsequent to the initial attacks formal members of the new Syrian Army joined the forces against the Druze population that defended itself with arms. Then earlier today Israeli jet fighters launched missiles against the attacking forces dispersing them before the killing could continue. This is a very dangerous situation and the new ruler of Syria now has a lot of explaining to do to the international community to which he has sworn to respect the rights of minorities in his country. At the moment the Syrian government is claiming that its troops entered the neighborhood to disperse the jihadi terrorists and not to harm the Druze. It is possible, and explanations should follow in the coming days as the Druze populations is being debriefed. Many of the more seriously injured Druze victims have been taken to hospitals in northern Israel for treatment. Seth Franzman provides an excellent synopsis of the situation in this article in The Jerusalem Post. The situation is very unstable as rebel groups getting support from Turkiye are doing what they can to stir up trouble.

And In Your Copious Spare Time…

• In Israel there are many concerns within the security establishment that the negotiations with Iran being led by Trump emissary Steve Witicoff are not going well, meaning that the original position of demanding full dismantlement of the nuclear program by the USA is being quickly eroded and the Trump Administration intends to settle for something closer to the JCPOA which was a very weak agreement. You can read more here.

• If you can afford the time here is an excellent podcast from Haviv Rettig Gur interviewing Dr. Sharona Mazalian Levi, an Iranian Israeli who is a highly respected authority on Iran within Israeli security circles. She provides a lot of insight into just what is happening inside Iran. Here it is on Apple Podcast. And here it is on Spotify.