October 592

My 323 post on The War

Today’s Image

After the collapse of hostage/ceasefire negotiations in March, the IDF slowly started to renew its offensive against Hamas in Gaza. The government has named this new offensive, Gideon’s Chariots. Its main aim is to increase the pressure on Hamas in order to force the moderation in Hamas’ position vis-a-vis hostage negotiations. The focus has been on eliminating the remaining Hamas leadership, its sources of funding, its facilities and its arms. The image you see is the “rogue’s gallery” published on the “Open Source” channel on x.com. they are tracking the leadership in Hamas. As you can see out of the 54 individuals shown, all but 16 have been eliminated. Certainly Hamas will do what it can to recruit new leadership. But the reality is that these leaders are the ones that are familiar with the money smuggling operations, the arms smuggling, the relationships with the leadership in Qatar, the relations with Iran, the training and more. Young 18 year old recruits are not only not trained to fight, but lack the knowledge to pick up the pieces as these leaders are eliminated.

Errata or Something Like It

Yesterday I reported on Qatar and how they are buying influence. I neglected to include a few of these important links:

• UK: From Qatar Tribune - “Cebr highlights Qatar’s £120 billion annual contribution to UK economy”,

• France: From Euronews - “France in line for euro billions of investment from Qatar by 2030”,

• Spain: From Global Finance - “Qatar to invest $5 billion in Spain’s EU-funded recovery”,

• Netherlands: The Peninsula - “Qatari investments in The Netherlands amount to €7.4bn”

• I could go on and on, but I think you get the picture…

Gaza Front

The IDF is very busy now with operations in Gaza. Below you can see a map of how the IDF is maneuvering inside Gaza:

The dotted line shows the original demarcation between Gaza and Israel as of October 6, 2023. The IDF has created a periphery of about 1 km around Gaza that it insists will stay in place for many years to come. It will be a “no man’s” land where individuals crossing into it will be shot on sight. The reddish colored zones are areas that are either currently occupied by the IDF or soon will be. They are designed to divided Gaza so that the IDF can control the movement of the population between the three main civilian areas. The main humanitarian zone is the area between the Mediterranean Sea and Khan Yunis in the southern part of Gaza. Today the IDF distributed flyers in Gaza, in Arabic, informing those people still in the Khan Yunis area to move to the humanitarian zone. This is because the IDF plans to go into Khan Yunis to locate and destroy the rocket facility responsible for the recent firing of two rockets at Kissufim.

The IDF has called up reservists who are filling in for active duty soldiers in other parts of the country so that those active duty soldiers can join the operations in Gaza. First and foremost the IDF is going after the remaining Hamas leadership and their facilities. Perhaps at the top of the IDF list of targets was Mohammed Sinwar, the younger brother of the former leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar. In an operation targeting the European hospital in Gaza, the IDF late last week fired a missile at the underground bunker buried deep below an adjunct facility near the hospital. The IDF gave the hospital staff and patients advanced warning and the time to evacuate. While there is no confirmed body recovered at this time, multiple reports have come in suggesting that the IDF successfully eliminated Sinwar, another senior Hamas member, Mohammad Shabana, and at least 10 of Sinwar’s staff (who were meeting at the time). The Hamas run health ministry claims that 16 people died in the attack suggesting that the IDF was precise in reaching its target. You can see the deep craters created by the bunker busting bombs dropped by the IDF and a more detailed description of the operation here. And a map of the tunnels and hospital here, and here.

In related news Sinwar’s other brother Zakaria Sinwar, also a leader in Hamas, was the target of a successful assassination on Saturday night in Gaza. And then yesterday, May 9, an IDF special forces operation targeted and killed another senior terrorist leader, Ahmad Sarhan. Because Sarhan was not in a tunnel, but was among a densely populated area the IDF determined that a missile launch would kill too many civilians. So a special forces operation that required some of the soldiers to emerge from a hidden compartment in a donkey carriage and some dressed as Gazan women successfully eliminated Sarhan. Sarhan was a senior leader in the terrorist group, Al-Nasser Salah al-Din Brigades. You can read more here and here. And here is a report on the elimination of Jasser Hussein Al Shamieh, a Senior Hamas leader responsible for the transfer of millions of dollars into the coffers of Hamas. And here is a report on the assassination of a Hamas operative who convinced the Associated Press that he was an objective reporter, who happened to be a confidant of Yahya Sinwar. As you can see the IDF has been very busy taking out Hamas leadership.

The IDF is also focused on destroying more of Hamas’s infrastructure. Now that arms are being supplied from the USA again, Israel no longer has to be carefully selective on which tunnels it can and which it can’t destroy. That is right! During the Biden Administration there was an ongoing arms embargo of specific types of explosives including those needed to destroy the tunnels, not by bunker busting missiles, but by well laid out explosives within the tunnels themselves. For example, here you can see a video of the IDF destroying a 200 meter long tunnel in the southern city of Rafah. It first identified the tunnel during operations in Rafah back in summer 2024. But lack of explosives prevented it from destroying the tunnel. And here is a report on the destruction of a 2 km long tunnel in northern Gaza. And yet another tunnel destruction reported here.

Despite what your cable news stations are telling you, the fighting in Gaza is not indiscriminate but focused on taking out Hamas leadership and infrastructure, in an attempt to force Hamas to come to the negotiating table under better terms.

Lebanon Operations

The IDF is maintaining its 5 positions along the “blue line” as well as the base it built on the top of Mt. Hermon so it can maintain its surveillance capability over most of Southern Lebanon. Although the Lebanese Army seems to be acting in good faith and is making progress in assuming control over Southern Lebanon, there are still many years of broken trust that needs to be made up. The IDF continues to act independently and routinely conducts a drone based assassination attack on Hezbollah leadership when they are found in Southern Lebanon. Here you can read/see one report from last Saturday. And just today the IDF assassinated a Hezbollah Radwan commander in Southern Lebanon.

Syria Operations

Besides the IDF activities in Gaza, the big news is what is unfolding in Syria. Yesterday I described the state of discussions and financial relief addressed by the Trump Administration. Earlier this week, in a gesture of good will, the provisional Syrian Government released to Israel’s Mossad Agency boxes of documents and personal belongings of Eli Cohen (Z’’L). Eli Cohen was an Israeli Jew born in Egypt who spoke an impeccable Arabic, as do most Mizrachi Jews that came from North Africa and the Middle East. From 1961 through 1965 Cohen was a deep implanted spy operating in Syria during the time when Hafez Assad was ruling Syria. Assad was Bashir Assad’s father. Cohen was so successful in his work that he quickly became a confidant of the top echelons of the Assad Regime, including the Syrian Army. In 1961, Cohen moved to Argentina where he created a cover story and fake identity. Then he moved to Damascus in 1962 from where he was providing an ongoing flow of classified information to the Mossad. Cohen was so effective in his role that he was a candidate for Minister of Defense at one point. He was uncovered in 1965, tortured and then hung in public. He is survived by his wife, Nadia Mahald (born in Iraq) and three children they had together. For years, Israel has tried to locate Cohen’s body so he could be given a proper burial and recognized for all he sacrificed for the country. It has been reported that Assad’s government exhumed Cohen’s body at least three times and reburied the body in an effort to thwart any efforts by Israel to recover the body. But this week Israel received all of Cohen’s personal belongings, which were shared with his widow. You can read more about Cohen here on Wikipedia. And here are a couple articles in the English Israeli press on the items recovered and how they were recovered - here, here and here. And here is the report in Reuters describing how the provisional Syrian Government used the gesture as a sign of goodwill to Israel. In his comments to the press, Prime Minister Netanyahu described Cohen as the most sophisticated undercover operative the Israeli Mossad ever had.

Iran

The main issue on the minds of most Israelis is the status of the US negotiations with Iran. Mixed messages have been flowing from the Iranians vs. the US delegations on the state of the negotiations and the main issues. The fear in Israel is that a deal not to different from the Obama era JCPOA was in the works. In that deal, the level of enrichment permitted to the Iranians was capped at about 3.6% which is what is needed for civilian use in a nuclear reactor. But that had a timed phase out and poor monitoring/enforcement. We now know clearly that Iran was lying consistently and hiding the real facilities from the inspectors.

In contrast, years ago a deal was reached with Libya during the period of Muammar Gaddafi’s rule when he agreed to abandon his nuclear program in exchange for the release of all financial restrictions from the West. Iran demands that there can be no restrictions on its ability to enrich Uranium. But it would be willing to expect some upper limit as part of the negotiations. This worried Israelis immensely. When Iran would emerge from the negotiations in Muscat, Oman with pronunciations that the negotiations were going well, Israelis would worry. Well it now seems that US negotiator Steve Witkoff has formally announced on US television is that the Trump Administration position is that Iran can possess NO enrichment capabilities. You can see/hear this on ABC News here. The reality is that the only countries in the world that have their own uranium enrichment programs possess nuclear bombs. There is not a single country using uranium solely for powering civilian power plants that has the capability to enrich uranium. Countries like South Korea and Japan purchase their nuclear fuel, enriched to 3.6%, from other countries.

If this remains the US position, which is an unknown, negotiations are likely to break down. In fact, written clarifications are being exchanged between the US and Iranian negotiating teams before the next and fifth round of negotiations are supposed to start.

In the meantime, there are active rumors coming from the US Military echelon that they suspect Israel to be preparing for an attack on Iran. Who knows if this is just being used as a “stick” with Iran or if it is real???

Egypt/Jordan

As you might recall, soon after President Trump took office he first invited Prime Minister Netanyahu to visit him at the White House. They he invited King Abdullah of Jordan to visit. At that time the President was putting forward a proposal in public calling for the movement of the Gaza population (permanently or temporarily??) out of Gaza to Egypt and Jordan so that the area could be reconstructed. King Abdullah came and informed President Trump that this would not work, but that he would be willing to take in 2,000 Gazans needing serious medical care… a promise yet to be fulfilled.

On the other hand, President for Life Abdel Fattah el-Sisi refused to accept President Trump’s invitation as he thought the idea that Egypt would accept any Gazans, even temporarily, was absurd. I do not think that President Trump is one to forget having an invitation turned down. As you can see, Egypt did not appear on Trump’s itinerary in his recent visit. And more importantly, Egypt was never mentioned a single time in any of the public discussions. It is likely that relations between Egypt and the USA are at one of the lowest points since President Obama’s famous “A New Beginning” speech in June 2009 at Cairo University. In that speech Obama announced that there would be a new beginning to the relationship between the USA and Islam. If you like you can go listen to the speech here. The net result of that speech was the launch of the Arab. Obama FORCED President for Life Hosni Mubarek to hold elections in Egypt that resulted in the election of the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsi, a close ally of Hamas and Qatar. That disastrous election was then negated when Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Field Marshall of the Egyptian Army, led a coup overtaking the government. El-Sisi has been in power since. Egypt has a population of 115 million people and increases by about 1.5% each year. The average number of children per child bearing woman is 2.88. The only other Middle Eastern country that comes close is Jordan, with 2.79 births per child bearing woman. Both countries are total economic basket cases and survive only through the aid it receives from the USA, Gulf Countries and the West. Egypt’s GDP per capita is $3,170/yr. Jordan’s is about $4,800/yr. [In contrast, Israel’s per capita GDP is $52k/yr & the USA $89k/yr.] Egypt has racked up massive loans with the IMF and World Bank, none of which it has the capacity to pay back. In this great analysis in the Middle East Forum, the editor Gregg Roman addresses the issue of whether Egypt is “too big to fail” or not. Egypt used to export food and cotton. Now it has to import both. It has some of its own gas fields, but is forced to import gas from Israel to augment its supply. Without the gas from Israel, the country has to deal with blackouts. And the government squanders what money it receives by massive building projects like high speed railroads linking the archaeological monuments and moving the capital away from Cairo. Many people in Cairo live in cemeteries.

And while President Trump was meeting with leaders from the Gulf Countries, el-Sisi was busy meeting with some new friends - China and Russia. You can read more about that here. el-Sis will soon learn that China does not give anything for free. They come in to build infrastructure, but take something as collateral or payment. He should go ask his friends in other African dictatorships how they have learned the hard way. Israel is worried about all this for obvious reasons. Having a failed state of 120 million people on its border is not a good thing. Egypt has been moving troops and building bases in the Sinai in violation of its Peace Treaty with Israel. And he is now trying to buy new arms from China and Russia, including those Chinese fighter jets recently used by Pakistan in its battle with India.

Hostage/Ceasefire Negotiations

As a follow up to the recent release of Israeli-American Idan Alexander by Hamas involving negotiations brokered by Bishara Bahbah, the former leader of “Arab Americans for Trump” it was expected that all parties would return to the negotiations. In fact, the Israeli Government dispatched its negotiators to Doha, Qatar in the hopes that an interim deal based on envoy Steve Witkoff’s previous proposed plan. That proposal involved the release of about ½ the remaining living hostages, or about 10, in exchanged for a two month ceasefire and increased aid bound for Gaza. Included in the deal were the number of detainees and terrorists serving terms in Israeli prisons. But, Hamas insists that integral to the negotiations must be a formal end to the war. While Israel insists that the war will only end when Hamas lays down its arms and its leadership leaves Gaza. So the negotiations are at an impasse. As I write this, Israeli negotiators are still in Doha, but it is expected that they will return to Israel in the next day or two.

Meanwhile, on a related thread US hostage negotiator Adam Boehler said yesterday at a New York conference sponsored by The Jerusalem Post that the IDFs actions on the ground in Gaza actually help in bringing about negotiations and closing the gaps between the parties. You can read more in this article on the English part of the Yediot Ahranot web site. If you scroll to the bottom you will see a video recording of his statement. This is important because the hostage families forum, that is leading demonstrations nightly accusing the government of abandoning their loved ones, insists that the best way to bring them back is to capitulate to Hamas demands now and resume the fighting another day.

Aid

There is a lot of talk and action about aid, or the lack of it, going into Gaza. Ever since aid started flowing into Gaza, Hamas has turned it into a business by stealing it and then selling it for profit to its own population. During the ceasefire of January/February 2025 more than 28,000 semi-trailer truck loads of aid flowed into Gaza. When you break down how much food was delivered it was sufficient for feeding the population for more than 6 months, using data from the UN for minimum calories per human. Since the breakdown of the ceasefire, Israel has placed a hold on humanitarian aid flowing into Gaza as a means of preventing Hamas from profiting from the aid trucks. Now, presumably under pressure from the Trump Administration the Israeli Government has started letting in about 100 trucks per day.

Yet, the European Union and the United Nations have both warned that unless more aid flows into Gaza more than 50,000 children will die of starvation in the next 48 hours. These people are absolute LIARS. We have heard these predictions now for the last 20 months, each and every day, no matter how much aid flows into Gaza. You should read this article published in the Free Press - “The Gaza Famine Myth”. Many, not all, of these liars are bought and paid for by Qatar. Don’t believe me? Check this article out. Here is just a smattering of all the “chicken littles” stating with “intimate knowledge” that massive starvation in Gaza is imminent:

• World Health Organization - “People in Gaza starving, sick and dying as aid blockade continues”,

• CNN - “One in five people in Gaza face starvation, report warns, as Israel’s months-long blockade continues”,

• BBC - “Entire Gaza population at critical risk of famine, UN-backed assessment says”,

• Al Jazeera - “Thousands of Gaza’s children face imminent death under Israeli siege: UN”,

• UN - “Gaza: ‘Worst-case scenario’ unfolds as brutal aid blockade threatens mass starvation”, etc., etc., etc.

Do you know what this is? This is a “blood libel”, for sure. Rather than publishing that the Jews kill Christian (or Muslim) children and use the blood to bake Matzot, the Jews starve poor, innocent Gazans. There is absolutely no difference. These same organizations have been screaming starvation warnings for the last 20 months. don’t believe me? Check these out and pay attention to the dates:

• AP - April 26, 2024 “UN report says 282 million people faced acute hunger in 2023, with the worst famine in Gaza”,

• Human Rights Watch - December 18, 2023, “Israel: Starvation Used as Weapon of War in Gaza”,

• UN - October 17, 2024 “Over 1.8 million in Gaza face extreme hunger”,

• The Guardian - November 3, 2024 “‘Strong likelihood’ of imminent famine in northern Gaza, food experts warn, as Israel continues siege”,

• Reuters - December 21, 2023 “Entire Gaza population facing hunger crisis, famine risk - U.N.-backed report”,

• UN FAO - March 18, 2024 “Projected famine in Gaza: FAO urges immediate access to deliver urgent and critical assistance at scale”,

• Just Security - November 18, 2024 “Days, Not Weeks: Gaza, Starvation, and the Imperative to Act Now”,

• and on and on and on and on

We need to start calling what this really is all about…

This is a Blood Libel, no different from the blood libels perpetrated against the Jews in the Middle Ages and throughout the Middle East…

The reality is that Israel and the US Governments have worked out an alternative means for aid distribution that is about to be deployed. A private, well armed, US contracting firm will provide supervision of the aid agencies that will distribute aid within the humanitarian zones of Gaza. If a Gazan wants the aid they will need to go to the protected humanitarian zones. The staff from the firm have already arrived in Israel. They are working, as I write, with the IDF on developing a methodology on how they will handle the aid distribution and the IDF will provide them fire cover protection. The goal here is to get aid to those that need it and block Hamas from commandeering the aid trucks like they always do.

Yet despite the IDF fighting an enemy that hides behind its own population, there has been no significant starvation of any kind in Gaza. I have not heard about a single person in Gaza dying from starvation…. A blood libel it is.

And In Your Copious Spare Time…

• Here is a long but very worthwhile, on location, report from The Economist on what is going on in Lebanon now vis-a-vis Hezbollah.

• And from an analysis in an Arabic media outlet - “Trumps Lifting Syria Sanction Solidifies Irans’s Regional Defeat”. It underscores the opinions I expressed yesterday.

• But here is an opinion from someone I respect that differs from my own. From Khaled Abeh Tomeh - “Trump Deals With Islamists”.