This post is part of a series of posts related to the new front in Israel’s War, Iran:
“October 623” described the missile attacks coming from Iran on Israel, casualties, the nature of the missiles and how Israel is dealing with them;
“October 624” went into the early days of the IDF’s attack on Iran and its initial targets - military leadership, nuclear knowhow, missile launchers;
“October 625” delved into making of an atomic bomb, the nuclear enrichment facilities built by Iran, the associated necessary technologies, the related targets in Iran, the progress the IDF has made in neutralizing those targets, the initial hours of the IDF attack and then the state of the IDF’s progress on eliminating the ballistic missiles, launchers and related systems; and
“October 625” described what’s going on with the cyber front, IDF strikes on military targets and IDF strikes on government facilities.
Based upon some requests from my readers I will use this post to try and address:
Drones. So far, I have not mentioned anything about the drone attacks on Israel from Iran.
How did the current Israeli Government arrive at the decision “that now was the time to strike”?
What are the goals?
What are the likely outcomes…
And, if there is time/space - How the Israeli Civilian population views the decision and the repercussions of that decision?
Errata
One of my readers correctly pointed out that my description of the isotope centrifuges and how they work had an error. Centrifuges are not just used for isotope separation but they are very common means for separating materials of different densities in either liquid or gaseous form. The higher density materials, greater mass, spin to the edges of the centrifuge and the lighter, less dense, materials remain near the center. I mistakenly stated the opposite.
Image of the Day - Welcome to the Drone Wars!
This is a photo of the Israeli Defense Contractor Elbit’s Hermes 900. Because of its long range it has been a workhorse for the Israeli Air Force IAF during the war with Iran. It is a multifunction drone used primarily for surveillance and communications. But it can also be used to fire a missile remotely. It has been the workhorse of the IAF’s operations in Iran. The IAF equipped, US built, fighter jets including the F-15, F-16 and F-35s had very few problems evading the Russian S-300 Surface to Air Missiles SAMs that were deployed by the Iranians. However, these SAMs and other anti-aircraft systems used in Iran have been capable of striking this drone. As a consequence, since the early part of the war the IAF has made a concerted effort to eliminate the meager Iranian air defense systems. They have succeeded in Western Iran and they are making progress in much of southern Iran. It remains to be seen if the IAF will pursue this in eastern Iran.
It would not be fair to claim that this war is the first war being fought where drones are an integral part of the military force. The Russians are using drones built by Iran (It is my understanding that Russia has now built its own factory.) in their regular missile attacks on Ukraine. The Iranians designed their drone based on the US built RQ-170 drone but by Lockheed Martin. Back in December 2011, when US forces were still in Afghanistan they launched a model of this drone into Iran and the Iranians successfully downed the aircraft nearly intact. They cleverly disassembled the system and learned how to build their own drones. But, also Ukraine has made incredible and very innovative use of drones in their attacks on Russian forces. Ukraine doesn’t have access to these more sophisticated drones, but they are equipping the commercial quadcopter drones with surveillance and/or armaments and using them effectively against Russian forces. The problem, however, is that those drones do not have a long flight range. That is why they had to be transported by truck across Russia in order to destroy those heavy, long range bombers and refueling tankers back in early June. My friend, Seth Frantzman, wrote a book entitled “Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machines, Artificial Intelligence, and the Battle for the Future” should you want to read more about drone warfare.
I should also state that the main reason that the Iranian air defense systems were so meager is that this fascist totalitarian theocracy places little value on human life. So their military investments were completely in the sphere of offensive weapons used in attacks on other countries, rather than defending its own people.
More on Israeli Drones
Since the first few days of the war, these IAF drones have been effectively deployed across areas of Iran as the anti-aircraft defense systems have been eliminated. The fighter jets can only run short missions in Iran as they must be fly a long distance, fire their 4-6 missiles at targets, return, refuel in the air, land back in Israel before being ready for the next mission. The drones can fly across Iranian skies for long times. They are remotely operated from bases inside Israel. The IAF is using them to:
identify launchers, missile storage facilities and Iranian personnel deploying the missiles before, during or after the missiles are launched. In some cases the drones are used to destroy the asset.
to identify and fire missiles at key nuclear and military personnel (some of those nuclear scientists were killed by drone attacks) and
to track and eliminate smaller military targets.
I do not know nor have I seen published just how many drones have been deployed by the IAF. But there are a lot. They are patrolling Iranian skies on a 7x24 basis. In addition to the Hermes class of drones, that take off from Israel and return, the IAF is also employing what are called loitering munitions drones, or suicide drones. So far, the Iranians have successfully downed three IAF drones in their air space. The most recent success was earlier today. In addition, US forces mistakenly shot down one Israeli drone a couple of days ago. The IAF has assured the Israeli public that Iran will have little to learn from the pieces they collect from these downed drones. The most recent IAF drone hit was operating near Kermanshah in south western Iran.
Israel was one of the earliest countries entering the drone military field nearly 30 years ago. It exports these systems to select countries. It will be many years before the Iron Beam type laser systems can be mounted on drones as their power requirements are too high for such vehicles. All three major Israeli military contractors - Elbit, Rafael and Israel Aircraft - have their own drone models specializing in different types of missions.
Iranian Drones
It is not talked about much in the foreign press, but Iran is launching daily (perhaps hourly) drone attacks on Israel. Not including the drone attacks from Iran in April, 2024, it is estimated that more than 1,000 drones have attempted to do damage on Israeli based facilities since the launch of this war. All but 2 of these systems have been neutralized by Israeli defensive systems. The most common drones deployed by Iran are the Shahed 136.
Unlike the sophisticated Israeli systems which are controlled by satellite, these drones have pre-set targets and navigate using GPS. They are cheap to build being made largely from foam and plywood. These drones are generally deployed as a swarm as they are not hard to take out of the sky. The hope is that a few get through the defensive systems in order to hit their targets. These are suicide drones without a planned return. There are many problems with these drones, particularly when fired such long distances away. Small differences in propeller speeds when traveling more than 1,000 km from launch can result in large discrepancies in arrival times thereby eliminate the '“swarm” advantage. Nonetheless, they can do serious damage if they penetrate Israeli airspace. You can see how the IAF is deploying its fleet of US built Apache helicopters to take down these drones in this video published by the IDF. In what is perhaps a glimpse of the future, the Israeli built drones are being deployed to also take out Iranian drone launchers and production/assemble facilities. That is drones destroying drones… To date, damage from Iranian drones has been minimal.
What are goals of this operation against Iran? What should they be?
For many of us here in Israel, it is overtly obvious why Israel took this decision to attack Iran so for us it is a bit hard to understand the confusion in most of the Western world. So I will do my best to explain why this operation to attack was made and why now. But before I do that let me iterate what the Israeli Government has publicly stated regarding the mission of this operation. It is threefold, to impair, preferably destroy:
the Iranian nuclear enrichment program along with all the laboratories, key scientists, documentation and factories making the subsystems needed to create/deliver a nuclear bomb,
ballistic missiles and their launchers along with the factories that build them and the subsystems needed to supply those factories - solid fuel propellent, launching vehicles, explosives, etc., and
armament production and storage facilities used to supply the Iranian Army, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp IRGC and the Iranian proxies scattered around the Middle East.
This list is also the list of priorities. In addition to this official list it is becoming apparent that government and internal security force facilities are being added as aerial targets. In this Jerusalem Post article posted today you can see a video of an Israeli precise drone strike on the most notorious prison in Tehran - Evin Prison. This resulted in the escape of many political prisoners, imprisoned and tortured. Late last week there was a strike on a different prison and here you can see a video of the escapees. Again, mostly political prisoners. And today the IAF also struck the headquarter of the Iranian Basij. This is the paramilitary internal security force responsible for ensuring that Iranian citizens obey strict muslim Shari’a law, or at least how it is defined by the Islamic Republic. They are the ones that go around the country harassing women for not wearing a hijab or being modest. If they choose to those paramilitary Basij have the authority to arrest, torture, rape and then kill their victims, many of whom were being held in that prison. And the IDF claimed today that they eliminated hundreds of IRGC militants.
What is absent from this list, and it is my dear hope that this remains off the list, is “Regime Change”. Both Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump have occasionally alluded to Regime Change in some public remarks each has made. Prime Minister Netanyahu has gone to the extent of granting an interview to Iran International, an Iranian ex-pat organization based in London and Paris of Iranian citizens hoping for the fall of the Islamic Republic. But, so far, outside of hitting government facilities and internal security there does not appear to be anything overt being done in the area of Regime Change. I think it is clear to most that no one other than the Iranian People can change the course of their country. And at the moment there is no political force or individual with the strength and recognition to lead such an effort. Perhaps events on the ground might change that dynamic, but in my opinion it cannot be induced by an outside power. Israel tried once in Lebanon and the US tried in both Iraq and Afghanistan. The record shows clearly that these efforts failed. Today, the White House announced and made it clear that Regime Change is not a goal of the operation.
So why did the Government launch this operation?
First a bit of history…. From 1941 through 1979 Iran was ruled by a monarchy headed by Mohammed Reza Shah Pahlavi. At various times during his reign he enforced a rule ranging from extreme authoritarian to benevolent rule. During the course of his reign in the early 1950s a leader emerged from the Iranian Parliament (the Majles) named Mohammed Mosaddegh that wanted to nationalize the Iranian oil fields, arresting them from management by British Petroleum. At the time most of the oil fields were developed and operated by British firms. The UK and USA covertly undermined Mosaddegh, the UK because of, what I would call, residual colonial interests and the USA for fears of communist rule. While ultimately the oil fields were nationalized they were done on favorable terms to the British interests.
During the course of 1978 the Shah began to lose control over the offices of the country. He had instituted a notorious secret police which imprisoned many political dissidents who opposed his rule, called the Savak. It is claimed, but never verified, that the IDF or Mossad has some training of the Savak. Throughout the 1960s and 1970s there were warm relations between Iran and Israel - investments, imports, exports, travel, oil and more. While there is ample evidence that the CIA contributed to the training of Savak, there is no proof that either the IDF or Mossad were involved. Moreover, during this period relations between Israel and the USA were not so close at all. Actually Iran officially opposed the recognition of Israel in 1947 at the UN and relations started cold, but warmed up over time until diplomatic relations were established in the late 1970s. Despite all this there was a large, old, historic Jewish Community in Iran dating back to the period of the Persian Empire around 500BC.
During the course of 1978 the Carter Administration in the USA started becoming concerned about the situation of one of its key allies, Iran. President Carter was pushing an agenda based on the respect for Human Rights around the world and urged the Shah to ease up on his secret service pursuit of political dissidents. It was a no win situation for everyone concerned at the time. There were many political forces in Iran that united to oust the Shah, ranging from communists, socialists, nationalist and islamists. This struggle was fought in the streets of Tehran, until the exiled islamic leader, Ruhollah Khomeini, left his home in Paris to land in Tehran solidifying the emergence of the islamists as the power of the day. Before this Israel had evacuated its embassy. But the USA had not. In 1979 after killing off most of the non-islamist opposition Khomeini went on to take over the USA embassy and hold its occupants hostage. Each night Ted Koppel, who launched the first late evening news hour, would come on the ABC TV network and tell us all how many days the US Embassy workers were still held as hostages. In the meantime, choruses of fanatics would chant in the streets of Tehran, “Death to the USA”, “Death to the Satan”. While Israel had done nothing specific to cause the new Islamic Government’s hatred, the fact that there was a Jewish State in Middle East was enough for it to be on the receiving end of their hatred. This is all ironic since US government documents declassified in 2016 prove that the USA was instrumental in assisting Khomeini to return to Iran as the Carter Administration naively was told and believed that Khomeini was prone to work with the west. As a consequence the Carter Administration prevented the Iranian Army from taking over control after the abdication of the Shah.
But at this time there was not really any specific actions taken by the new Islamic Republic against Israel. In fact, Israel had covertly supplied arms to Iran. In 1981 Iraq, under the rule of Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Muslim dictator, attacked Iran in a conventional and very, very bloody war over a long running territorial dispute. The Gulf Countries were supporting Iraq, a fellow sunni country. It was part of Hussein’s intent to annex the south western parts of Iran populated mostly by fellow sunnis and the location of most of Iran’s oil deposits. More than ½ million people died in this war. I remember it being reported that Iranian children were dispatched to walk along the mine fields to detonate them so that the conventional army could traverse across the mine fields. Well, Israel provided a modest amount of arms to Iran during the war in exchange for oil shipments. Israel had naively believed that helping Iran might bring some goodwill.. But it resulted in no changes.
In June 1989, the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini died of natural causes. He was immediately succeeded by his appointed heir, Ali Hosseini Khamenei. It was under Khamenei that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps became the predominate political and military power in Iran. And it was under his leadership that attitudes towards Israel went from animosity to a policy of absolute intolerance and an active program to destroy the Jewish State. Khamenei served during the Iran-Iraq War and it was there that he forged his very tight connections to the IRGC that are the strength of his rule to this day. It was under Khamenei that the IRGC, under the leadership of his close friend Qassem Soleimani, formulated the “ring of fire” around Israel. Soleimani, who was the leader of the IRGC and its Quds Force, formed the relationships and funding apparatus behind Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas and the Assad Syrian Regime. It was under Khamenei that the count down clock was created in Palestine Square in Tehran that counts down the seconds until Israel’s destruction in 2040 (that was blown apart during a raid yesterday by the IDF). If you think about it, for an islamic fascist regime it is a good strategy. Keep a tight lid on opposition in the country. Then export your extremist philosophy to the Sunni Muslim World, fund them, provide them arms and logistics… then let them fight Israel for you. It works with Hamas. And it works with the Shi’ite axis including Hezbollah, Houthis and the extremist Shi’ite sects in Iraq. The Iranian have created a structure where not a single Iranian needs to die, but all these other groups are jumping at the chance to become martyrs while fighting the “Little Satan”, Israel.
I believe that it goes without saying why Israel had to attack Iran. You have a fanatical regime that torments fanatical militias in other countries to try and demolish Israel and upend stable Arab states when they can.
Allowing such a regime to have the ability to create a nuclear weapon is global idiocy taken to the extreme. The IDF, during its many raids inside the tunnels of Gaza, has uncovered a lot of proof that the IRGC was working to deliver a nuclear bomb to one of its proxies to use on Israel. Iran was also well down the development road to create long range missiles, perhaps even ICBMs. Already their missiles can reach Paris and London. It is not hard to imagine a time ahead when their missiles can reach New York and Washington, DC.
So this is not just a fanatical regime structured on the hope that it can martyr itself in the name of bringing about the coming of Mahdi soon, but it carries out this nightmare in real time.
I have run out of room and time, so I will post, hopefully tomorrow, an explanation on “Why Now?” and “Where/How might this end?”
And In Your Copious Spare Time …
Here is an IDF explanation on why Iran’s nuclear program had to be destroyed, in English.
After today’s attack on the US Air Base in Doha, Qatar we may start hearing a lot more about Qatar’s role in funding the Moslem Brotherhood and fanatical islamist groups. You might want to listen this outstanding analysis on The Free Press, entitled “How Qatar Bought America”.
And if you still haven’t been convinced about the duplicity of Qatar, check these series of articles from the Washington Examiner: Qatar’s quiet campaign: How Doha is buying America, Qatari foreign agents target conservative media, Qatari Foreign agents donate to the congressman they lobby, Qatari lobbying machine finds friends in South Carolina, Qatar keeps purchasing political influence. Its enough to make one lose sleep at night.