October 203, 2023, "The War"

My 154th post on The War

Today’s posted image is of a unit within the Israeli Navy’s Shayetet 13 unit. In Hebrew, Shayetet means “flotilla”. Our Defense Minister Yoav Gallant came from this unit as did our previous Minister of Communications, Yoaz Handel. It is probably considered the most elite unit with the IDF. They often train with the US’s Navy Seals. They have been very active in various operations in Gaza, often the unit that first enters a difficult facility. This unit was founded in 1949, soon after the formation of the IDF. I know several lone soldiers that served in this unit. Friends of mine, actively assist lone soldiers to get into this and other special forces. After the PLO was permitted to enter Judea/Samaria (West Bank) after the signing of the Oslo Accords, they began arms smuggling operations using many commercial ships - Karine A, Santorini, Abu-Yusuf, Francop, Victory and others. Shayetet 13 was instrumental in capturing or blowing these ships up while enroute. Their operations are kept as top secret…

No rockets launched from Gaza landed in Israel for the past 4 days. No IDF casualties in the past 12 days on either front. The 7 yr. old girl seriously injured in the massive Iranian missile attack is still in intensive care after one week but is able to breathe on her own now.

No significant news to report from IDF operations in Gaza. IDF forces entered the northern village of Beit Hanoun. This was one of the first towns taken by the IDF at the onset. As expected, some individual Hamas cells have returned and operate from positions there. The IDF forces eliminated the operatives they found and a few rocket launchers they located there. One of those was responsible for a rocket barrage launched earlier last week. The one brigade there, Nahal, is scheduled to be relieved by two brigades that were called up for reserve duty starting later this week. Preparations are beginning, albeit slowly, for a major operation Rafah, the last major stronghold for the Palestinian terrorists in Gaza.

Between yesterday and today, the IDF has conducted more than six operations in southern Lebanon attacking positions held by Hezbollah. Reconnaissance missions into southern Lebanon by IDF special forces continue to observe and provide numerous targets to both the IAF and artillery units. Several Hezbollah operatives were eliminated in these strikes, raising the total acknowledged by Hezbollah to 285. It is estimated that Hezbollah has a trained terrorist army of between 50,000 to 75,000. But the IDF insists that they have successful in eliminating quite a few of high ranking commanders of this army. This is important because in any future operation, their replacements will be inexperienced and not command the same level of respect. Earlier in the day, Hezbollah launched four rounds of kamikaze attack drones against facilities in Israel. No injuries or damage were reported. This evening a missile launched by Hezbollah struck a home in Metula, a northern community in Israel. No injuries were reported as the family that owned the home was evacuated months ago.

Well, it looks like the Hamas political leadership camping out in Qatar may become nomads soon. There is talk that they may be evicted by their hosts, perhaps due to international pressure. But lucky for them they have another patron over in Türkiye with the President for Life, Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan is upset that Israel has not involved them in aid or negotiations. So guess who popped up in Ankara?? Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh. And I can assume that they are talking about real estate and 5 start hotels in Istanbul… And Erdogan, who wants to be in the middle of negotiations, announced after their meeting that Palestinians need to unite in order to have the “Strongest response to Israel”. I do not know where Erdogan studied, but someone should inform him that this is not the way to position yourself as an intermediary…

And the Palestinian Authority is not happy either. They are threatening to re-evaluate their relations with the USA after the USA used its veto at the UN General Assembly to block admission of the PA as a full member to that wonderful democratic institution known as the UN General Assembly. The USA says that France and the UK also wanted to stop admission at this time, but voted in favor knowing that the USA would veto. I believe it. Why should the European Powers take any decisions requiring backbone and principals when they never do??

Since my last post on Thursday, I had not commented on the so called “lame” IDF response to the Iranian wave of missiles and drones from last Sunday morning. So here is the news…. Bear in mind that neither the IDF nor the Israeli government announced any attack on Iranian facilities, and avoids doing so as a part of its policy. This and any incidents in Syria provide a policy of “plausible deniability” to Iran, which is important tactically. In any case, it is claimed by the New York Times that some military force fired three missiles and destroyed the missile defense system at an Iranian military air base in Isfahan not far from the Natanz nuclear site. Apparently the missiles and the aircraft that delivered it went undetected by Iranian radar systems. Many of the 350 drones and missiles launched by Iran against Israel were launched from this air base. This NYT report contradicts what the Iranian leadership announced. They say that they eliminated several “drones” before any damage could be rendered. It seems

that several attack drones were launched from within the territory of Iran targeting sites within the air base as well. It is possible that the drones were just decoys, but no one really knows. It was also pointed out by US Defense officials that Israeli aircraft that delivered the missiles did not cross Jordanian air space. We, in Israel, are a bit frustrated by how the US Administration makes these announcements, attributing the attacks to Israel. It is much, much better for all parties to desist from crediting Israel with such attacks. It forces the party on the receiving end, Iran, to respond in some way. It is much better to leave it ambiguous. The real question, in the aftermath of the massive Iranian attack last week and the attack on Isfahan, is if Iran will succeed in deterring the ongoing elimination of high ranking IRGC military officials going in and out of Syria. Whoever is responsible for killing them must continue, undeterred, in my opinion.

And while we are on the subject of attacks against the IRGC in Syria, a report from Bloomberg television revealed that the April 1 attack on the building next to the Iranian Consulate in Damascus successfully wiped out the entire command hierarchy responsible for the IRGC activities in Syria and Lebanon . According to the article, there are suspicions in Iran that some elements of Syrian Intelligence may have leaked information to the entity that perpetrated the attack.

And in related news, someone launched air strikes against an Iraqi air base maintained by a pro-Iranian militia. The USA is denying responsibility as is Israel. There are reports of one casualty. The base is used by Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces in the largely Shi’ite area south of Baghdad.

And something no one else is reporting on…. Ever since that Iranian reconnaissance and missile guidance ship Behshad, labelled a commercial vessel by Iran, retreated back to Iran last week after its missile attack on Israel, missile and drone attacks coming from the Houthis has dropped off the charts. Seems to me that there is a simple solution, temporary maybe, to the Houthi problem. And that is to make sure that this Iranian ship is not able to re-enter service again.

And you can say, “you heard it first here” ... As I reported previously, I fully expected that the success of the Israeli defense systems would spur major orders for these systems from foreign countries, as well as the IDF. Here you can read a recent article in an Israeli paper confirming that Israeli Defense companies are reporting large increases in orders from foreign countries…

Not much has been said of the impact of the Gaza War on the Christian community in either Israel, Gaza or Judea/Samaria (West Bank). I have not talked much about it either. But here is an article worth reading that documents what is going on. I have personally visited Bethlehem, using my US passport, on Christmas Eve in the past and spoken with the few Christians there that I met. They complained about the marginalization of their community. Prior to the Oslo Agreement, when Israel has jurisdiction over Bethlehem, the population was more than 60% Christian with an overall population of 11% throughout Judea/Samaria (West Bank). In 2016 the Christian population in Bethlehem dropped to 16% and is much, much lower now. And the overall Christian population in Judea/Samaria (West Bank) is below 2%. Meantime, the only country in the Middle East where the Christian population increases is Israel, where it grew by 1.4% since 2020.