October 352, 2023, "The War"

My 264th post on The War

Today’s Image

In the last 24 hours, Hezbollah launched more than 160 rockets into Israel reaching as far south as 60 km from the border. Three people were lightly injured and serious damage resulted when two residential homes were hit. But the main casualties were 15 cows that were killed by a Hezbollah rocket when it struck their dairy farm. You may remember the chicken coop that Hezbollah hit in its retaliation for Israel’s assassination of Fuad Shukr. This time they managed to kill cows. Here is a photo of the real dead cows:

My View - Addendum

In yesterday’s post, I argued that in my view that given the intransigence of the Sinwar Brothers and their lack of motivation to arrive at a hostage/ceasefire deal, that one possible route for forcing them to re-examine their position would be a defeat of Hezbollah in the north, as defined by pushing them back behind the Litani River. As I noted this has risks but it is likely necessary for other reasons, including enabling our citizens to return to their homes in the north.

Well, today in a closed session of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed the MKs (Members of Knesset) that Hamas does not currently want a ceasefire and applying pressure on Hezbollah could force Sinwar to the negotiating table.

Casualties

There were no casualties reported by the IDF in the last 24 hours, except for the dead cows, may they rest in peace.

Lebanon Operations

The Home Front Command ordered hospitals in Israel’s north to remain open only for emergencies and urgent care. And all patients, facilities should be moved below ground. Our hospitals in the north have, long ago, equipped themselves so they could move patients, including those in intensive care, below ground by converting parking facilities. You can see photos and read more on how Haifa’s Ramban Hospital converted its parking lot into a clean operating hospital care facility. Amazing!! It is actually quite amazing to see. Also, schools were ordered closed in the north for all day today and now tomorrow as well.

Today, Hezbollah laid to rest its Radwan Commander in Chief, Ibrahim Akil, and the other commanders killed in the Israeli aerial strike late last week that killed over 36 Hezbollah commanders and operatives, including its entire Radwan command structure. At the funeral, Hezbollah deputy secretary-general Naim Qassem said that Israel’s operation now means that the battle is open ended. I presume that what he meant by that was that there were no longer any limits on their operations. You can see the ceremony here, if you like. You will notice that there is not a single Lebanese flag to be seen anywhere.

Up through mid afternoon, Hezbollah launched more than 150 rockets. Many of these rockets were of the Fahdi-1 and Fahdi-2 class of Iranian weapons. The Fahdi-2 has a range of about 100 km and the Fahdi-1 about 80 km. Rockets in this class can strike as far south as the city of Netanya along Israel’s Mediterranean coastline. You can read more about thes rockets here. More than 80 of those rockets were fired within a 30 minute period in the early morning. Most of the rockets were intercepted mid flight. But one made it through and struck a two story residential building in Kiryat Bialik, a suburb of the city of Haifa. The rocket resulted in severe damage to a two story residential building. Ironically, no one in the building was injured as all the residents were inside their Mamads. A Mamad is a special room in buildings constructed in the past 20 years that is designed to withstand missile attacks. I have one in my apartment in Tel Aviv. But three people were lightly injured from shrapnel resulting from several of the intercepted rockets.

The main casualties of the day were several cows killed when a few rockets hit the dairy farm in Israel’s Jezreel Valley. The facility housing the dairy cows also sustained serious damage. Read more here.

A rocket also landed in a nearby town, not far from Haifa, causing damage to a building. A fire broke out nearby, but no one was injured. One woman, however, was treated for shock. Somehow a camera caught the strike live, as it happened.

Meanwhile, Israeli fighter jets have been running sorties over Lebanon doing what it can to destroy rocket launching sites as soon as they are spotted firing. The IDF announced that in light of today’s massive barrage of long range rockets, it will intensify its activities of strikes in Southern Lebanon and the area in Baalbek, near the Syrian border. You can see a couple videos of the operations and learn more here.

This evening, sirens went off over Israel’s Golan Heights warning of possible infiltration of a kamikaze drone entering Israeli air space from Syria.

The IDF spokesman and the Home Front Command are warning the population that hostilities coming from Hezbollah are likely to increase over the coming days, possible with missiles (not rockets) launched that can reach cities further south in Israel.

Gaza Operations

In Prime Minister Netanyahu’s meeting with the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee he indicated that a much talked about plan being called the “Generals’ Plan” might be considered by the cabinet for discussion. This plan was built by a group of retired Israeli Generals under the initiative of Maj. General (Retired) Giora Eiland. I will make an effort to go into details of this plan another time, once it is determined whether or not the government is giving it serious consideration. For the time being it is just talk. But this plan calls for the complete evacuation of Gazan civilians from the northern part of Gaza, essentially making it a military zone. The civilians would be provided advanced warning to evacuate, but then the IDF would move in with order to shoot anything that moves. No aid would be allowed into the area. There is much more to the plan, but that is the top level description. Lawyers have viewed the plan and agree that it meets with International Law. The goal is to change the dynamics on the ground in an effort to get the hostages freed. At the same meeting Netanyahu mentioned that Hamas introduced 29 new revisions to the proposed hostage/ceasefire proposal. You can read more here.

There is a crazy rumor that just started circulating in Israel this evening, Sunday. There are rumors that Yahya Sinwar is actually dead. There is absolutely no evidence, other than the fact that he seems to be out of touch with the remaining Hamas commanders. But, when you are left to communicate only by hand carried written messages this should not be too surprising. Here is an article on the subject. I don’t believe it.

IDF/Government

The Communications Ministry has been preparing for the war in the north for some time. More than 440 Skyline Satellite phones have been distributed to mayors and heads of local councils in the north on the assumption that land and cell phone communications will be intermittently disrupted. The Ministry also said that it is working closely with the private sector communications and internet service providers to work in collaboration to try and keep the country’s systems operational.

Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye

It now appears that is was not only Hezbollah that purchased pagers and distributed them to their operatives. Today, a senior Iranian official said that Tehran was also involved in purchasing the same pagers held by Hezbollah operatives. An Iranian based journalists, Mohamad Ahwaze, reported that a member of Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, said that former President Raisi had one of the compromised pagers when his helicopter crashed in May. But the official investigation into the incident announced that it was due to bad weather. Here is the X post.

Also coming out of Iran, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp IRGC arrested 12 people it claims were collaborating with Israel. No less than 100 people were executed so far this month in Iran, including some of the internal demonstrators against the regime.

Today, in Iran an explosion erupted in a coal mine with many miners trapped in the rubble. So far the state TV broadcaster said that 19 people died and 30 remain trapped deep underground. It is believed that a methane gas leak, common inside coal mines, triggered the explosion.

A drone launched by an Iranian proxy in Iraq targeting the southern city of Eilat in Israel was intercepted before entering Israeli air space.

Aid

With assistance from the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COCGAT) unit of the Defense Ministry, Doctors Without Borders (MSF) opened a new field hospital near Deir al-Balah in Gaza. This is the 13th such facility operating in Gaza now.

COGAT reports that 182 aid trucks entered Gaza yesterday transferring their cargo onto the staging facilities. Aid organizations picked up and distributed 136 trucks worth of aid inside Gaza. About 500 trucks worth of aid has accumulated inside Gaza waiting for distribution. But somehow the ICC finds that it can accuse Israel of intentionally starving Gazans. Not a single man, woman or child in Gaza has died of starvation since the start of the war!!

Hostages/Ceasefire

In the closed meeting of Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee the Prime Minister informed the MKs (Knesset Members) that the IDF estimates that only half of the 97 remaining hostages are likely to be alive.

Today, White House National Security spokesman John Kirby was interviewed on ABC TV’s “This Week”. When questioned about the hostage/ceasefire negotiations, Kirby said that:

It doesn’t appear that Mr. Sinwar is prepared at all to keep negotiating in good faith, especially after he murdered six hostages in a tunnel, execution style.

When asked about the situation in our north, Kirby said:

The tensions are much higher now than they were even just a few days ago. We still believe that there can be time and space for a diplomatic solution here and that’s what we’re working on. We’ve been working since the beginning of this conflict, October 8th and on, to try to prevent an escalation, to prevent a broadening of this conflict there in and around Israel, but also in the region.

Then, on the other hand, Egypt’s Foreign Minister places all the blame on Israel. On a visit to UN headquarters in New York, Badr Abdelatty tells the French news wire service AFP that “All the components of the deal are ready. The problem is the lack of political will on the Israeli side.

Politics/Protests

Normally the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics announces its changes in population demographics around the Jewish New Year. But some data has been leaked earlier. According to the report 31,000 Israelis left the country in 2021 and 29,000 returned. In 2022, 38,000 left and 23,000 returned. But in 2023, the year of the Hamas attack and the Judicial overhaul, 55,300 moved abroad and 27,000 returned. Part of the reason for the jump is the manner in which the categories are defined. The CBS used to define someone that “left” the country as someone who stays abroad at least 275 days whereas previously it was someone who stayed abroad for at least 365 days. But, certainly the current challenges facing the country are causing some to leave. The CBS does not track where they go. And statistics for new immigrants has yet to be posted. But, there are also people who left the country because they were forced out of their homes as well. It remains to be seen whether they return or not in the coming months.

Justice Minister Levin who launched the infamous Justice Reforms in 2023 resulting in half the country protesting in the streets (including me) was informed today that if he does not announce the candidates for President of the Supreme Court he will be in contempt of court. While I cannot foresee him being arrested or anything, I do not think a lot of people would be upset to see him behind bars (excuse the sarcasm). He has been holding up convening the committee because he did not get his way in how the committee is structured. So he has postponed convening the selection committee now for more than a year.

International

There are rumor circulating here that the International Criminal Court ICC arrest warrants for Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant are likely to be issued later this week.

Today, for the first time, Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart Andrii Sybiha by phone. Until just recently Israel has been careful to maintain itself on the sidelines in the Ukrainian-Russian war in an effort not to piss of Russia. The IDF has had a working relationship with Russian forces stationed in Syria that has become vital for it to conduct many of its air operations there preventing Iran from supplying sophisticated arms to Hezbollah. This conversation seems to show a softening in that position by Israel. I think that both countries could learn from each other. Ukraine has asked for Israel to supply it with Iron Dome systems. Israel has so far declined, but such systems would not benefit Ukraine much as they are intended for inbound rockets, not missiles. But both countries are dealing with Iranian kamikaze drones and might benefit from collaborating on how to neutralize them.

Today, President Herzog appeared on Great Britain’s Sky News and was interviewed by Trevor Phillips. You can see the interview on YouTube here. You may want to skip to 47:04 unless you want to catch up with all the local news in the UK. In good British form, they provide time for the “Palestinian Ambassador to the UK” to respond. You can hear that at about 1:13:00.

Today, IDF troops entered Al-Jazeera’s Bureau in Ramallah to close its operations for a 45 day period. The Qatari controlled media outlet which broadcasts via satellite to Arab countries throughout the region takes an extreme anti-Israel position on all its reporting. It has been accused by the Israeli Communications Ministry of inciting violence throughout Judea/Samaria (West Bank). Leaders of Western Powers have launched tirades into Israel accusing it of losing its democratic principles. But, the government has done nothing to interfere with the broadcasts of any of the Israeli (Hebrew, Arabic or English Language) broadcasters and newspapers. Most of them are very critical of the government. Closing down an arm of the Moslem Brotherhood, Al-Jazeera, hardly seems to me a threat to democracy. Actually, I think Al-Jazeera is a threat to democracy as neither the Moslem Brotherhood or the Qatari Government are anything but democratic in nature. Read more here.

In a report appearing in the online news outlet Axios, US officials are reported to be saying that they hope the Israeli military pressure is sufficient to bring Hezbollah to the realization that it should pull back north of the Litani River per UN Security Council Resolution 1701 passed in 2006. You can read more here.

Consistent with this view, yesterday President Biden’s Middle East Coordinator and National Security Council member Brett McGurk told the Israeli American Council (IAC) National Summit that Hamas leader and Oct. 7 architect Yahya Sinwar will face ‘justice” at some point. He said “Honestly, Israel is on our hearts and in our minds every single day, every single waking moment it’s on the president’s mind.” Regarding the north he had this to say:

We do not think a war in Lebanon is the way to achieve the objective of returning people to their homes. There are disagreements with Israel about how you measure escalation risks. It is a concerning situation. But I’m very confident that through diplomacy, through deterrence, and other means, we will work our way out of it.

We also fully stand with Israel in their defense of their people and their territory against Hezbollah.

Referring to Hezbollah senior official Ibrahim Akil, who planned the 1983 U.S. embassy and Marine barracks bombings in Beirut and who was killed along with other Hezbollah commanders in an Israeli airstrike this past week, McGurk said: “Nobody sheds a tear for him”. You can read more here.

And In Your Copious Spare Time…

• I highly recommend you read this exclusive report from The Jerusalem Post. In it the author, Yonah Jeremy Bob, provides unconfirmed information about the decision and background on the “The Grim Beeper” operation. In it he claims that the lack of a means for communication between the Radwan Commanders forced them to meet in person in the basement of the building in Beirut. And that, in turn, allowed the IDF to assassinate the lot of them.

• Here is a great OP-ED from Jonathan Tobin, editor of The Jewish News Syndicate, in which he discusses the totally absurd reactions in the West to what he calls “The Grim Beeper” operation that resulted in exploding pagers and wireless radio transmitters. Rather than accusing Israel of this incredible operation and castigating it, when Israel didn’t even claim credit, by the likes of French President Macron and UK Prime Minister Meir Starmer is absurd. They should only wish that their armed forces could launch such a focused targeted attack such as this.

• And here is a great analysis written by one of my favorite Israeli authors, translated into English, on the absolute hypocrisy of President Emmanuel Macron, who has now shown that he is no friend of Israel and that he is contributing to the decay of the West.

• And here is an interesting “what if” set of scenarios described by a solid military analyst who writes for The Jerusalem Post. He tries to guess as to how this story might end. I agree with his assessment of what happens if this or that should occur. But, like my analysis yesterday he suggests that the story of the end in Gaza is likely to be determined by what happens in the north, not in the south.