I do not think there is an outright contradiction. Unlike Hamas in Gaza, Israel will not hold a goal of eliminating Hezbollah's ability to fight or rule. Israel will win in the north if it is able to convince Hezbollah, by force if necessary, that it must retreat back to the Litani River. The USA seems convinced that this can be accomplished diplomatically. I am skeptical, but do not know enough. If Hezbollah is pushed back in this way, Israel is out of rocket range. That is all that Israel is seeking. Hezbollah might convince itself that it can do this in order to return another day, but who knows. At this point Sinwar's forces are so spent that Iran or Hezbollah entering a war is too late. Sinwar's only choice for survival is to keep the hostages, keep them alive and keep them close. Without them he is dead and he knows it. Israel cannot go after him now as it will result in hostages being killed. Otherwise he would be dead by now. Only if Hezbollah is able to completely overrun the IDF on Israeli territory can Sinwar come out victorious... If Hezbollah moves north of the Litani River there is no cavalry coming to save Sinwar. At least this is my view based upon the current pieces on the chess board....
I guess the question is how Israel keeps Hezbollah north of the Litani without getting bogged down again in Lebanon? I agree with your take on Sinwar’s mindset. Unless he’s dead, of course. 😏
This TOI piece seems to argue that Israel is better off not pursuing all out war with Hezbollah right now, but rather focusing on defeating Hamas to get the hostages back. Is it only one or the other?
read this - https://www.timesofisrael.com/lebanese-hospitals-pushed-to-the-brink-as-discontent-with-hezbollah-mounts/
I do not think there is an outright contradiction. Unlike Hamas in Gaza, Israel will not hold a goal of eliminating Hezbollah's ability to fight or rule. Israel will win in the north if it is able to convince Hezbollah, by force if necessary, that it must retreat back to the Litani River. The USA seems convinced that this can be accomplished diplomatically. I am skeptical, but do not know enough. If Hezbollah is pushed back in this way, Israel is out of rocket range. That is all that Israel is seeking. Hezbollah might convince itself that it can do this in order to return another day, but who knows. At this point Sinwar's forces are so spent that Iran or Hezbollah entering a war is too late. Sinwar's only choice for survival is to keep the hostages, keep them alive and keep them close. Without them he is dead and he knows it. Israel cannot go after him now as it will result in hostages being killed. Otherwise he would be dead by now. Only if Hezbollah is able to completely overrun the IDF on Israeli territory can Sinwar come out victorious... If Hezbollah moves north of the Litani River there is no cavalry coming to save Sinwar. At least this is my view based upon the current pieces on the chess board....
I guess the question is how Israel keeps Hezbollah north of the Litani without getting bogged down again in Lebanon? I agree with your take on Sinwar’s mindset. Unless he’s dead, of course. 😏
This TOI piece seems to argue that Israel is better off not pursuing all out war with Hezbollah right now, but rather focusing on defeating Hamas to get the hostages back. Is it only one or the other?
https://www.timesofisrael.com/string-of-idf-successes-might-cause-nasrallah-to-back-down-but-wont-lead-to-victory/