October 371, 2023, "The War"

My 274th post on The War

Today’s Image

This is the outer wall of the Old City not far from Sha’ar Yafo (Jaffa Gate) which you can see on the extreme right of the photo. Staring yesterday the images of the remaining hostages are illuminate across the city wall to commemorate the one year anniversary since their kidnapping. I guess that the US and European Jihadis that run around tearing down posters of the hostages would have a hard time tearing these images away. There are often images projected on these walls to commemorate or celebrate specific events. Here you can see video that scans the entire western most wall of the Old City. You should look at it.

My View - Comments on Recent WP Reports

One of you asked me about three recent reports appearing in The Washington Post. I will comment on each here:

This report, entitled “Hamas built an underground war machine to ensure its own survival” describes how Sinwar’s Hamas built its arms and tunnel infrastructure knowing that the IDF would have to enter Gaza in order to dismantle the infrastructure. I have little issue with the research conducted by the two authors. There were many mistakes made by Israeli Governments (mostly led by Prime Minister Netanyahu) and the IDF over the past 17-18 years regarding Gaza and Hamas. There will be at some point a comprehensive investigation into the mistakes made before the October 7 attack, during the attack and how the IDF responded after the fact. I am not privy to enough information to draw any objective conclusions on my own. I will say this however. The fundamental mistake made by the governments was that they thought that the genocidal Hamas leadership, when given the responsibility of running a “state” and provided generous aid would moderate its views over time. It would be preoccupied with the administrative responsibilities of building a state and not be interested in launching a full out war. Israel underestimated the fanaticism that drives the thinking of the Hamas leadership. The reality is that they have no interest in building or running a state. It is a distraction. They have said over and over that the responsibility for caring for the Gaza population is in the hands of all the aid groups that operate in Gaza. This is one of the major reasons that Gaza and Judea/Samaria (West Bank) are perpetual “basket cases”. None of the Arab leadership has any interest whatsoever in building the institutions for governing a state. But… I am getting off subject and will return to this another day…

The report does a good job describing how Hamas got to where it is. And it is true that the IDF was surprised to learn that most of the rockets and launchers were home built using designs and guidance originating with the IRGC. Surely the Kalashnikovs, RPGs, IEDs, grenades were smuggled into Gaza over the years. But nearly all the rockets were home built inside small (sometimes large) workshops built above and below ground. [It is largely based on this that I concluded that demanding that Israel maintain control over the Philadelphi Corridor is not an absolute requirement. But what is required is a much better inspection system, largely overseen by the IDF, on the Egyptian side of the border crossing.] And it is true that the massive tunnel infrastructure is just too large to destroy completely. There are just not enough explosives in the world to blow them all up. Instead the IDF has had to be selective. I take issue with some of the numbers they use regarding casualties/combatants. It was estimated that Hamas had a trained army of about 30-35,000 fighters on October 6. The IDF estimates that the number killed or taken captive during the fighting in Gaza and those killed in the October 7 attack number about 21-23,000. In addition, a best guess on the number seriously injured would be around 5-6,000. A seriously injured combatant cannot return to the battlefield. So a good guess on the residual forces is something closer to 3-5,000 capable of putting up a fight. Hamas will be able to find eager teenagers wanting to pick up a rifle or RPG in order to fight the IDF but without proper training they are likely to be “cannon fodder”. Most of the remaining terrorists are being found in northern Gaza, Nuiseret and Deir al-Balah now. The IDF has done a fairly good job of isolating many of the tunnels restricting the underground movements of those forces. Most are having to meet and operate above ground, making them much easier targets. Each day we read in the paper about an IDF drone or fighter jet missile launched and taking out dozens of Hamas combatants.

The reason that the IDF forces cannot go on the offensive and take out the rest of the terrorists as well as the Sinwar brothers is the hostages. It is estimated that about 40-50 remain alive. And they are being used as human shields around the remaining terrorists. I have spoken with some of the IDF soldiers returning from fighting in Gaza and they say that some of the terrorists are sitting around a swimming pool smoking on a Nargilah (water pipe) knowing that the IDF cannot do anything because they will kill the remaining hostages should the IDF get too close.

And now I am going to say something that no one wants to hear, but it is the reality. I FIRMLY BELIEVE THAT SINWAR WILL NEVER GIVE UP THE HOSTAGES IN ANY NEGOTIATION. He knows that the minute he does, his career is over. He has spent his life building a terror state with a jihadi army trained to kill, dismember, rape, burn alive, any Jews or Westerners they encounter. He has lost most of that army now, but he strongly believes that he can recover and build it again as long as he remains in power in Gaza. Being a part of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas maintains the vision that they will lead an army of jihadis to first destroy Israel and then go on to conquer the West. Just like this Islamic Conquest in the Seventh Century AD. His vision is absolutely no different from that of ISIS. But he has a state, he gets free aid, he steals from that aid and he even gets support from the UN and Europe. This is something that even ISIS could not accomplish. The only way that he can ensure he can move forward with this horrible vision is to keep the hostages and never cut a deal. He presumes that eventually the USA and Europe will apply pressure on Israel to come to a unilateral ceasefire to allow the Gazans to return to what is left of their homes. And when that happens he will once again assume control.

In the meantime, the IDF will be fighting an urban warfare insurgency. Hamas can no longer fight as an organized army or even militia. But in small groups of 20-40 terrorists they can launch raids on IDF forces and fight a war of attrition. But unlike the French in Algeria, the USA in Afghanistan, etc. we cannot pack our bags, exit the war and manage to have our population live in peace. We are not thousands of km away from the insurgency. We are meters away. So we will continue this fight.

The second Washington Post article is entitled “Mossad’s pager operation: Inside Israel’s penetration of Hezbollah”. In this article the authors compiled a fairly detailed account of how they claim Israel managed to pull off one of the most cunning and elaborate methods for eliminating a large number of mid level combatants in one stroke. Before commenting on the report I need to point out that unlike Hamas in Gaza, the IDF has been preparing for a war with Hezbollah since 2006. If the “Operation Grim Beeper” was carried out by the IDF/Mossad (they have not claimed any credit for the operation) it was just one element in a much more elaborate plan consisting of many, many levels on eliminating the ability of Hezbollah to launch a major attack against Israel. In fact, during the first few days of The War, long before any IDF troops entered Gaza, the IDF leadership wanted to launch a full attack against Hezbollah since it launched a war with Israel on October 8. But on October 11 there was a major meeting of the government and the newly formed War Cabinet where/when it was decided to focus on Hamas in Gaza. In 20:20 hindsight it is still not clear whether that was a good decision or not.

I have read the report more than once. It is 100% consistent with everything that I have read or heard about the operation. I have no points of disagreement with what the authors wrote. However, I will add the following. The original plan of the IDF/Mossad was to trigger the “Operation Grim Beeper” right before a major ground offensive so nearly all the commanders in the Radwan Force would have been severely injured or killed right on the cusp of being attacked by IDF ground forces. But, the operation preceded the ground attack because there were real fears that Hezbollah members were starting to get suspicious of the devices. So everything was accelerated. It was also revealed only recently that the Walkie-Talkies that exploded on the second day of “Operation Grim Beeper” had been in use by Hezbollah since 2015, all the time carrying the small explosive. The IDF was able to listen in on their conversations throughout this period. But as a post script, I will say that at this point the IDF and Mossad are executing on a very elaborate plan that was developed over the years since 2006. They have a “playbook” and the are going though it on a play by play basis. The senior security establishment is announcing that there are many more “Operation Grim Beeper” like plans to come.

Just so all of you know, based on the current ground operation in Southern Lebanon IDF troops are uncovering clear and incontrovertible evidence that Hezbollah had planned an almost identical operation to Hama’s October 7 attack. The original plan pulled together by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC was to have all its proxies attack on the same day - to murder, burn alive, dismember, rape, torture as many Israelis as they could.

The third Washington Post report I was asked to respond to is entitled “Iran’s missile attack on Israel raises questions about limits of arsenal”. I have to admit that I am less qualified to comment on this article than the other two. In this case, the authors report on the detailed capabilities of Iran’s missile arsenal regarding which I am no authority. However, I do agree with the basic conclusions of the authors and those specialists they interviewed. And that is, most likely the most recent Iranian attack consisting of about 181 ballistic missiles fired within a short timeframe of each other is likely the best attack that Iran could launch on Israel. The attack consisted of at least 3-4 different types of ballistic missiles, including what Iran calls its most advanced - Fattah (Arabic for resistance. I do not know if it carries a meaning in Farsi.) The Iranians like to claim that this missile is hypersonic, meaning it can travel at low altitudes at speeds faster than the speed of sound and can be guided remotely. However, all the experts quoted in the article doubt that any of the missiles fired by Iran could qualify as hypersonic. Iran claimed to its own people and proxies that 90% of the missiles hit their targets. This is a complete lie, not an exaggeration but a full lie. What the authors did not report was that there were reports from opposition groups from within Iran that some number of missiles actually blew up at launch and some others landed inside Iran. It is estimated that of the 181 that made it outside Iranian Territory, only about 15 made it past Israeli Air Defenses. And among those only 3-4 actually struck anything close to what could be considered a target. Two hit one IDF air base, one hit a different air base and one hit a school. The Chief of Staff conducted an highly visible inspection tour today of the two affected air bases and reported that there was light damage, including a hanger for maintaining/repairing jets. No jets were hit, no personnel were injured, landing strips/control towers were intact, etc. It will not take long for the IDF to recover. There was one casualty from the attack. Shrapnel struck an Arab from Gaza who was staying with family in Jericho, about 15 km due East of Jerusalem.

The point the authors made was that based on the opinions of the experts they interviewed that this was probably the “BEST” attack that Iran could muster. They were impressed that they could fire so many in such a short time interval and that was a modest surprise. However, Israel proved that it could defend itself from such an attack and it is unlikely that Iran could muster much more than they did in any future attack. It was the collective opinion of those experts interviewed that Iran threw at Israel its best arsenal and Israel defended itself quite well. And on the contrary, the IDF could conduct a raid on Iran targeting 15-20 clear, strategic targets, hit 100% of the targets and return to IDF bases in Israel without even probably being detected en route. So, as I have been saying for some time in these posts, Iran and its army of proxies have built arsenals for the sole purpose of attacking and wreaking terror on its victims. They are not effective in killing anyone since their accuracy is so poor, but they do cause panic and fear. BUT, none of these entities have built any kind of aerial defense systems. Iran has purchased S-300 SAM systems from Russia, but Israel destroyed one of them near Tehran last April without being detected. According to reports emerging from Iran, it scared the entire military echelon in Iran.

But I was not asked about this Op-Ed in The Washington Post written by David Ignatius and I recommend you read it. It is entitled “Israel’s Oct. 7 counterpunch - Israel has recovered the military primacy it lost when Hamas surged across its border a year ago”.

So the next logical question is “What is the IDF going to do when it launches its operation against Iran?” The short answer is "I do not know”. Here is a great analysis that appeared in Israel Hayom right before the Rosh Hashanah Holiday in which the author examines the options that face the IDF and government in deciding how best to response. If Israel attacks the nuclear installations it could only destroy a fraction of them under best circumstances. If Israel attacks the oil storage and refinery infrastructure, Iran could retaliate by striking similar systems in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE thereby disrupting a large portion of the world’s flow of fossil fuels. Personally, I think that the strategy should be to target “Regime Change” in Iran. We should do what we can to facilitate the weakening of this Jihadi Regime so normal, sane Iranians can retake their country from these fanatics. Presidents Obama and Biden should have done precisely this when brave women and men launched their massive protests inside Iran over the past years. So blowing up military infrastructure of the IRGC, including large numbers of combatants seems to me like the right move. But, what do I know???

Ron Ben Yishai, one of my favorite military correspondents, wrote a very thoughtful analysis on what thinking the IDF and government must go through in deciding how to react. Unfortunately, it was only published in Hebrew. The translated title reads “On Israel weakening the Tehran Regime: Weighing the trade offs in selecting the retaliatory strike mission”. I swear that I wrote my analysis above before reading Yishai’s article. But in it he states this:

Therefore, the main consideration that Israel needs to take into account is to what extent the response to the Iranian missile attack serves the long-term goals of the war. Any of our attacks on Iran on its territory requires a huge amount of resources, planning and American support, so the goals must not be tactical-local, even if they restore Israel's deterrence for a while. At the current stage of the conflict with Iran, that is, with the head of the snake, one should think about the overall goal. And in my estimation, Israel's long-term goal is to topple the Shiite fanatical Ayatollah regime in Iran. Israel does not have the ability to do this directly…. Iran is an enemy of a different magnitude, and therefore only the Iranian people, who number more than 80 million souls, can remove the Ayatollah regime and replace it with another, more sane regime that is not committed to the spread of the Islamic revolution and the destruction of Israel.

I swear to you, my readers, that my suggestions that the IDF should attack facilities that will weaken this corrupt, fanatical regime was written before I read Yishai’s article. Further, it is my opinion that Israel should strike a deal with the USA. That in return for refraining from striking either nuclear or fossil fuel infrastructure in Iran, the USA must also make regime change part of its strategy. No more of this nonsensical Obama Plan to try and placate the Ayatollahs through some weak, hallucinatory concept that one can negotiate an agreement with this Jihadi Terror Regime and expect it to respect the terms.

Casualties

The IDF reports that a soldier suffering from mortal wounds in Gaza earlier this year succumbed and died today. Sgt. First Class (res.) Nir Haddad - 28 (Z’’L) died today.

There was a terror attack in the city of Beersheva this morning. Border Police Officer Shira Suslik - 19 (Z’’L) was killed when took on the terrorist firing his machine gun. Besides Suslik, an as yet unidentified 25 year old woman was also killed. Five others were rushed to the hospital with serious injuries and five were released with only minor injuries. The attack was perpetrated by an Arab Israeli Ahmad al-Uqbi - 29. He was a Bedouin from the small village in the Negev. In response to this terror attack the leader of the Arab Islamist Ra’am Political Party, Mansour Abbas, delivered a statement on his x.com account in which he said:

Today a heinous crime was committed in Beersheba against innocent civilians. We condemn the attack, especially since the perpetrator is an Arab citizen from the Bedouin community in the Negev. This is not the way of Arab citizens who have shown civic, moral and legal commitment and abhorred any type of violence, and rejected any attempt to be dragged into taking part in acts of political violence.

Rockets & Missiles & Drones

One rocket was fired from northern Gaza today and was intercepted on its way to the Southern Israeli city of Ashkelon.

Altogether Hezbollah launched a barrage of 25 rockets this evening. Most were intercepted but one struck a home in the Northern Israeli town of Maalot. The town is 8 km from the Lebanese border. No one was injured as nearly all the residents have been evacuated since October, 2023. But one home suffered a direct hit.

Early this morning IDF aerial defense systems neutralized two surface to surface missiles fired by Hezbollah targeting the Northern Israeli city of Haifa. And very early this morning IDF aerial defense systems neutralized several kamikaze drones launched simultaneously by Hezbollah. It seems that the IDF is improving its aerial defense systems against these drones.

Three attack kamikaze drones were intercepted today over the Mediterranean Sea near the Northern Coast of Israel by Iron Dome missiles launched from an IDF Naval war ship. They were launched by Hezbollah.

Lebanon Operations

The IDF ground forces are finding a similar pattern to what they found in Gaza when going from home to home in Southern Gaza. In each and every home they are finding large caches of weapons - machine guns, RPGs, grenades and much more. There are not as many tunnel entrances hidden with children’s rooms as they found in Gaza but the tunnels, themselves, are much more impressive as they are larger and carved out of rock. As they are moving from house to house in Southern Lebanon they are confiscating the weapons, bringing them back to Israel (not sure why) and destroying facilities as they move.

You really need to check out the video on this site. It shows just a sampling of the arms found in a single arms facility used by Hezbollah. It and the armored jeep you see at the beginning were intended for use in an October 7 like operation planned by Hezbollah.

The IDF says that ground troops struck more than 150 Hezbollah sites in Southern Lebanon over the past day. Targets have included anti-tank missile launching positions, groups of combatants, tunnels and weapon armories. Those ground operations are expanding in scope and area. Here is a video released by the IDF showing troops navigating through a home that had an entrance to a large tunnel along with many arms hidden in various rooms. The home was later destroyed. And here is a different tunnel/home.

It turns out that during the recent IDF fighter jet strike on Hisham Safieddine, the candidate to replace Nasrallah, the IDF succeeded not only in killing Safieddine but also Esmail Qaani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force. That is a very senior position in the IRGC infrastructure. In some circles this would be called a “two fer”. Apparently his assassination is causing some level of panic amongst the IRGC rank and file.

Late last night IDF fighter jets conducted a series of missile strikes on sites near and around Beirut, targeting arms storage and manufacturing sites used by Hezbollah.

Gaza Operations

An IDF drone fired a missile targeting a former school in northern Gaza this afternoon killing an unknown number of Hamas combatants. As usual the facility was kept under surveillance for a sustained period to ensure minimal civilian casualties.

There are two IDF divisions that remain in Gaza, one in Rafah and one along the Netzarim Corridor. Troops from the northern division launched an operation in the Northern Gaza town of Jabaliya late last night, neutralizing dozens of Hamas combatants who had gathered there. The ground troop operation was accompanied by air strikes on weapon depots, tunnels and facilities used by the terrorists. You can read more here and see images of the operation.

In anticipation of issuing evacuation orders to those Gazans living in the northern Gaza area, the IDF has cleared an area norther of the existing humanitarian zone to accommodate the new evacuees. Routes are being cleared and areas prepared with tents, toilet facilities and a temporary hospital. This means that the IDF is likely to launch as significant operation in Northern Gaza soon. Here are the instructions being sent to mobile phones of the residents showing them where to go.

And during operations in the central Gaza city of Deir al-Balah the IDF launched aerial attacks on Hamas Command centers. One was inside a former school. The other inside a former mosque. These facilities are no longer in use by civilians.

Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye

Iran has cancelled all flights to/from Iranian airports in anticipation of an Israeli attack. Iran’s Oil Minister went on a tour visiting the petroleum refining and storage facilities marking an expected attack there.

In recognition of the “highly effective and successful” attack on Israel by the IRGC, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei awarded the medal of Order of Fath to General Amirali Hajizadeh. Hajizadeh is the IRGC commander of the “Aerospace Force”. Well, I guess his name will now be added to the target list.

Syria’s state news agency reports a missile strike from a fighter jet hit three vehicles near the city of Homs. As usual in such situations Israel remains silent. In addition a missile struck hit an “Iranian car factory” near Homs.

IDF/Government

Two IDF soldiers were suspended today. They were found filming a scene with three bound/blindfolded captives in which they pretended to deliver a lecture on the Talmud. Their behavior violated IDF code and were suspended. Normally, the mobile phones of all soldier are confiscated and held for them when they conduct any operations as the IDF doesn’t want anything filmed and posted anywhere that is outside their control. Nor do they want the possibility that Iran can track their locations by homing in on their cell signals. So I do not know how they were able to record this bizarre scene.

In recognition of the one year anniversary since the October 7 attack, President Herzog announced that he will be conducting a three day tour of the Gaza border communities hit by the Hamas attack. At each there will be a short memorial ceremony.

Today, in advance of the country wide observation of a day of remembering, the IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi published a letter to his staff intended for distribution amongst the rank and file. I thought his words carried a lot of meaning so I quote them here:

For our enemies: every month, every week, and every day is worse than the one before. Even after the campaign ends, we will need to maintain our achievements, and our enemies will know, beyond any doubt, there will be no revival for those who seek to destroy us. October 7 is not only a day of remembrance but also a call for deep introspection. A recognition of our failures and a commitment to learning from them while assessing the challenges, both those we have faced and those that still await us. We regained our composure, advanced to fight, and grew stronger. From this war, a new generation of warriors and commanders has emerged, unparalleled in combat experience and unwavering courage. We have defeated the military wing of Hamas, and we continue to fight against the organization’s terrorist capabilities. We have dealt a severe blow to Hezbollah, which has lost all of its senior leadership. We are not stopping – we fight, debrief, learn, and improve. We are taking an offensive, tactical, and proactive approach on all fronts, adapting our defensive strategies on all borders, and understanding that the IDF must be a greater army that takes good care of its people. We will ensure that the enemy's capabilities are not rebuilt so that October 7 is never repeated. Defeating the enemy, returning the hostages, and returning the civilians to their homes is an urgent mission of the highest moral value. At the start of the new year, let us remember and remind ourselves and our enemies – this is a war for our right to be a free people in our land, as well as for our values, beliefs, and the righteousness of our path. We will persevere, and we will win. Continue with this strength, the eyes of the entire nation are upon us. I am with you at every step.

Every poll being released now is showing, decisively, a major renewed confidence in the IDF and the entire security apparatus including Mossad and Shin Bet. It is a very good feeling so we are enjoying it while it lasts.

Aid

COGAT (Israel Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories) posted an update on the aid situation in Gaza. As of October 1, 156 humanitarian aid trucks entered Gaza’s staging areas daily. Only 82 were picked up for distribution leaving about 450 trucks worth of aid accumulating inside Gaza.

Hostages/Ceasefire

Some of the hostage families met with Qatari Officials in Doha last week. During their meeting they were told that Sinwar is no longer communicating with Qatar but they believe that he is still alive. They confirmed that he has surrounded himself with the living hostages for protection. But, in a strange twist of events, this account is being denied by senior Qatari diplomats who are saying that these conversations with the families never took place. Moreover, the Qataris do not directly communicate with Sinwar they only communicate through its political office in Doha, Qatar. Moreover, in the earlier reports the families insisted that Haniyeh was the more moderating force in the Hamas infrastructure. And after his assassination the Qataris claim that it became more difficult. But according to the Qataris, all the communications are going through Khalil al-Hayah and Haniyeh had little involvement. This is really bizarre. But I believe the Qataris as the Hostage Family Forum continues to do what it can to embarrass the government. You can read more here.

Protests/Politics

Tomorrow, there are numerous memorial ceremonies planned across the country to commemorate the October 7 attack by Hamas. Moreover, there is non stop TV coverage of interviews with hostage families, survivors of the attack and families of fallen IDF soldiers. The government is also planning a large commemorative ceremony.

Unfortunately, everyone is on high alert because one or more terrorist attacks are expected. The IDF is expecting an attempted long range rocket barrage attack from somewhere in Gaza as Hamas will want to show that it is still “alive and kicking”.

International

Marking a year since the October 7 Hamas attack, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres issued a video statement on his x.com account. You can find it here. He deserves credit for issuing a sincere and meaningful tribute to the victims.

Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke by phone today with President Emmanuel Macron by phone after their bitter spat yesterday when Macron insisted that arms that could be used for fighting in Gaza should be withheld from Israel. In the conversation Macron expressed his opposition to the expansion of the war in Lebanon. I wonder if he says the same things to Hezbollah, demanding that they stop firing rockets. Or better, where was he for the past 12 months while Hezbollah has been bombarding our northern communities? According to reports, Macron told Netanyahu:

… arms shipments, extending the war in Gaza and extending it to Lebanon will not provide Israel with the security it desires…

He fails to mention that it was not Israel that launched the cross border attacks on October 7 (Hamas) and October 8 (Hezbollah). And he fails to explain how an arms embargo is supposed to bring us greater security.

And In Your Copious Spare Time…

• I regard this as a truly remarkable interview, not so much because of its content but because it is an interview between the leading host of Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya English Speaking Media Channel with Israel’s President Isaac Herzog. It is 17 minutes long and you should watch this recorded historic event. In the interview Herzog calls for the Lebanese and Iranian peoples to “rise up” and confront their tyrannical rulers in order to take back their countries. “If we confront it and be tough together, we surely can hope for a better future and create a NATO-like structure in the region that blocks radicalism.” All this said on Saudi Arabia TV.

• And if you have an hour to spare, you should watch this interview/discussion coming to us from The Free Press between its founder Bari Weiss and Douglas Murray, marking the one year anniversary of the October 7 attack.

• I have avoided making any comments about the situation in the USA regarding the Jewish Community. But I will make this one short exception. Bret Stephans, from the editorial staff of The New York Times, recently wrote this Op Ed that I think is worthwhile for members of the US Jewish Community to read.