October 375, 2023, "The War"
My 278th post on The War
Today’s Image
How would you like to have this box of grenades in your child’s bedroom? Well each and every home in many of the villages being entered now by IDF ground forces in Lebanon are finding this and much more. I am hearing this from sons of friends that have entered Lebanon. EACH AND EVERY HOME IN MANY OF THE VILLAGES ARE WAREHOUSES OF HEZBOLLAH ARMAMENTS. They pay the villagers rent to store this stuff. You should watch this video.
Casualties
This morning the IDF announced that Sgt. Maj. (res) Ronny Ganizate - 36 (Z’’L) was killed during close quarters fighting in Lebanon. That makes 12 IDF soldiers killed in action during the ground offensive into Lebanon. Prior to the two week old ground offensive, 34 IDF soldiers were killed by Hezbollah rocket and drone strikes along with 26 civilians during the prior 12 months of Hezbollah air attacks on Israel.
Also today, the IDF reports the deaths of 3 IDF reservists fighting in northern Gaza, presumably Jabaliya: Master Sgt. (res) Ori Moshe Borenstein - 32 (Z’’L), Maj. (res) Netanel Hershkovitz - 37 (Z’’L) and Mast Sgt. (res) Tzvi Matityahu Marantz - 32 (Z’’L). They died when their jeep hit an IED (mine). Their deaths bring the total casualty count from fighting inside Gaza to 353.
The identity of the two civilians killed during Hezbollah’s massive rocket attack on Kiryat Shmona was released to the public late last night, Revital Yehud - 45 (Z’’L) and Dvir Sharvit - 45 (Z’’L).
And a civilian Rafael Mordechai Fishof - 35 (Z’’L) died today from wounds sustained in the terrorist knife attack that took place yesterday in the northern coastal city of Hadera. The assailant was caught. He is an Arab resident of the Arab Israeli town of Umm al-Fahm.
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
Nor rockets were fired from Gaza crossing into Israel in the past day, but the IDF neutralized a drone launched from Gaza into Israel.
Altogether Hezbollah launched 360 rockets of which about 220 actually crossed into Israel over the course of the day. Late this afternoon the IDF intercepted a kamikaze drone launched by Hezbollah that targeted the upper Galilee region around Metula. Sirens went off so residents could find shelter before any shrapnel might fall. Also late this afternoon Hezbollah launched a barrage of 50 rockets targeting Israeli’s coastal cities of Acre and Nahariya. Some of them made it through the IDF’s air defenses and caused some damage. But the level of damage has yet to be reported.
This morning more than 50 rockets were launched by Hezbollah at our northern communities.
Lebanon Operations
This evening IDF jet fighters assassinated Hezbollah’s Liasison and Coordination Unit chief Wafiq Safa. He reported directly to Hassan Nasrallah (and was the leader’s brother in law) who was assassinated two weeks ago. Safa was wanted by the USA Treasury Department. The Treasure Dept. said that Safa was the senior most commander in Hezbollah exploiting Lebanon’s ports and border crossing to smuggle in arms and contraband into the country. While this was not stated by the Treasury Department, I would have to assume that he was also overseeing Hezbollah’s massive international drug production and smuggling operations.
The IDF has gained substantially in its South Lebanese ground offensive in both confidence and actual operations. Yesterday, they invited the Israeli Press to accompany them on a patrol of the area to report on their own what was going on. Here is a link to one report. In a clear sign that the IDF has assumed full control of the border region, the border fence was deliberately removed so tanks could move in and out. If there remained fears of a Hezbollah Radwan ground attack there is no way they would have done that. Reports are coming in that almost every home that the IDF encounters so far has massive amounts of ammunition, grenades, kevlar vests, mortars, AK-47s and more. The policy now is to confiscate all the arms, then destroy those homes in which the arms are found leaving those few that did not in tact. They are also finding full plans for the planned Hezbollah ground attack - which villages to attack, which types of people to take as hostages and more. From what they have found, these storage facilities were checked regularly with a full schedule associated with each munitions storage area and an initial with date on who last inspected and when. I have spoken with a couple IDF soldiers who went in with one of the divisions and got brief leave. They did not know, or can’t say, how far they expect this offensive will take the IDF into South Lebanon. Specifically, I was trying to learn whether the IDF currently intends to move all the way to the Litani River or not. But I could not get any information in this regard. According to the reports, the air campaign that was launched in the last 12 months against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon, after they launched their unprovoked attack on October 8, was effective. Many of the Hezbollah forces stationed in the South were either killed or evacuated to the North. They still encounter resistance. The IDF estimates that in the two weeks of the current campaign about 450-500 Hezbollah combatants have been killed. Several uncovered tunnels have been found. Most cannot be blown up with explosives, like those in Gaza. The terrain in Northern Israel and Southern Lebanon is rocky. Many of the Hezbollah tunnels were cared into rock using sophisticated tunneling equipment like that used to charge rail tunnels. So instead the tunnels get pumped and filled with concrete rendering them useless.
You should watch this 4 minute video published by the IDF. IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari takes you on a tour of a typical home found in a Shi’ite village less than 1 km from the Blue Line border with Israel. The massive amount of arms you see stored here is what they are finding in most every home they have encountered to date. All these home will be destroyed, at least those found storing arms.
And while I am not familiar with the organization that posted this, I recommend you watch this 6 minute video as it provides an excellent first hand view of just what Hezbollah has built in Lebanon.
Missiles from IDF fighter jets assassinated two senior Hezbollah commanders this morning: Ahmad Mustaga Alha Alij and Muhammad Ali Hamdan. Alhaj Ali was responsible for the rockets and anti-tank missiles fired from Meiss El Jabal, a village right across the border from Kiryat Shmona. Ali Hamdan was commander of the anti-tank corps and was also responsible for many of that deadly missile firings into Israel. The IDF also assassinated Hezbollah combatant Adham Jahout who operates out of Syria. Jahout was managing reconnaissance for Hezbollah spotting targets on the Golan Heights.
The IDF requested again, today, that UNIFIL troops stationed along the Lebanese border evacuate their positions in order to avoid getting caught in the cross fire. The Irish dominated troops have refused. Instead UNIFIL has called on Israel and Hezbollah to abide by UN Security Council Resolution 1701 that calls for Israel to keep its forces South of the Blue Line (border with Lebanon) and Hezbollah to keep its forces north of the Litani River. This is the first time in a year that such a statement came from UNIFIL. During the past 18 years they did not at any time call for Hezbollah to abide by the Resolution. But now, after Israel had no choice but to enter Southern Lebanon, they wake up. Speaking of waking up our good friends the French issues a statement from their Foreign Ministry demanding explanations after shots were fired in the direction of UNIFIL forces. Their statement said:
France expresses its deep concern following the Israeli shots that hit the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and condemns any attack on the security of UNIFIL.
Then Italy issued its protests as well. Its Defense Minister Guido Crosetto issued a statement:
The shooting at the UNIFIL headquarters and other incidents involving small arms fire are intolerable, they must be carefully and decisively avoided. For these reasons, I protested to my Israeli counterpart and the Israeli ambassador to Italy.
Well if you refuse to recuse yourself from an active battle zone after multiple requests you should expect that errant fire could hit your positions. Specifically, the IDF sent messages to the UNIFIL forces to take cover as troops needed to operate in their vicinity. Not a single UNIFIL force member was either injured or killed in the incident in question. You can read more here if you like.
Israel’s Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon issued this statement:
Our recommendation is that UNIFIL relocate 5 km (3 miles) north to avoid danger as fighting intensifies and while the situation along the Blue Line remains volatile as a result of Hezbollah’s aggression. Israel has no desire to be in Lebanon, but it will do what is necessary to force Hezbollah away from its northern border so 70,000 residents can return to their homes in northern Israel.
Gaza Operations
The IDF is continuing its operations in Jabaliya, Northern Gaza. An airstrike today hit a former medical facility (no longer in use) where massive amounts of weapons were stored and Hamas maintained a Command and Control Center. Besides destroying these Hamas facilities, the strike kills about 15 combatants including some who participated in the October 7 attack. Overall the IDF says that its ground forces have killed more than 30 Hamas combatants, some of whom attempted to launch anti-tank missiles at troops. The ground troops found large stores of ammunition and arms.
And during operations in Deif al-Balah in central Gaza an IDF air strike hit a former school being used by Hamas as a command post. It appears that about a dozen combatants were killed in that strike. Ground troops eliminated dozens of combatants and destroyed several Hamas ammunition storage facilities as well as tunnel entrances.
And in Rafah, IDF forces continue to uncover rocket launchers, tunnels and weaponry.
Yemen Operations
Houthis said today that they targeted attacks on two vessels today, the Olympic Spirit in the Red Sea and St. John in the Indian Ocean. The UK Maritime Organization that operates in the area reported that the Olympic Spirit was hit by an unknown projective but the crew reports that there was no sustained damage, no fires and no casualties. The crew is safe.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye
CORRECTION: In the IDF operation to assassinate the presumed replacement for Hassan Nasrallah, Hashem Safieddine, it was reported (and I wrote) that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp Senior Commander of the Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, was also killed. But now it is being reported that he is alive and back in Iran. There he was subjected to an “interrogation” during which he suffered a heart attack. You can read more on this site which appears to be an English Language Iranian media outlet. According to this article, an advisor to The IRGC Commander in Chief, Qaani arrived in Iran “in perfect health”. But, now it appears that the man, after only a short time in “interrogation” suffered a heart attack. You should read the report lots of satyrical jokes and a view on how the Iranians see this situation. One post cited is this one showing Qaani’s head photoshopped onto Israel Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi while in a briefing with US CENTCOM leadership. The fact that the IRGC brought one of their most senior commanders in for “questioning” regarding the intelligence leaks within their ranks shows just how much of a panic their whole military is regarding all the successful strikes by the IDF.
Very early this morning the Britain based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor reported that missiles fired from a foreign fighter jet struck several major facilities in the Syrian town of Hassia, about 80 km south of Hama. According to their report, an “Iranian car factory” was directly struck along with air defense systems and government troops.
And you may remember from two days ago when I reported on a fighter jet attack by some country in the Mezzah neighborhood of Damascus. I said at the time that the target was not identified but we are likely to learn it in the days to come. Well in this report it appears that the attack resulted in the assassination of Deputy Commander of Iran’s Quds Force, Mohammed Reza Fallahzadeh.
Well it now looks like everyone in the world gets to vote on which sites the Israeli Air Force should strike on its imminent attack on Iran. Apparently several of the Arab Gulf states are lobbying Israel to not attack Iran’s oil sites. You may recall from yesterday’s post that I doubted Israel could attack Kharg Island because of the massive disruption to the international oil markets. This just validates that opinion. Most of the Israeli public favors attacking the nuclear sites, but it is my guess that Biden Administration pressure will probably preclude that and Israel will end up hitting Iranian military targets instead.
IDF air defense systems neutralized a drone launched by an Iranian proxy group in Iraq called Islamic Resistance over the Red Sea before it entered Israeli air space, not far from the southern city of Eilat.
IDF/Government
Yesterday I reported that an orthodox group of Jews in Tel Aviv won their case in the Supreme Court allowing them to pray outdoors using the improved separation wall between men and women during Yom Kippur prayers. Today, after winning the case, the group announced that they would find another location, indoors, to host their prayers in order to not cause an outbreak of fights initiated by extremist secular Israelis like last year. In so doing they issued this statement:
In wartime, with our soldiers bravely endangering themselves, and with the whole nation praying for the safe return of our hostages, the path to victory and defeating the enemy as well as bringing back our hostages lies in greater holiness, in unity and internal peace. With God’s help there will yet be many public prayers across the country.
You may remember that two days ago I reported on an Arab woman from Natzeret (Nazareth) was arrested for posting herself dancing on her TikTok account with the date October 7 shown. She was arrested and blindfolded, at the encouragement of the extremist right wing minister National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir. Her name is Entisar Hijaze. She has been released and been interviewed on several Israeli TV stations. Apparently on her TikTok account she posted several such videos including one in which she was mourning for a Jewish friend she lost from Kibbutz Beeri on October 7. Well she announced that she is suing the police and Ben Gvir, personally. My guess is that half the lawyers in this country offered to represent her pro-bono just so they could have the chance to expose the stupidity and racism of Ben Gvir, who Netanyahu has allowed to run our police force. Most of the country is rooting for her as she prosecutes her case.
While we are this subject of how Ben Gvir is using the police for his personal vendetta, there is a report on an attempt by a local theater director to present a controversial film called “Lyd” produced by notorious anti-Israel entertainer Roger Waters. The police have issued an order to block the screening of the film at the al-Saraya Theater in southern Tel Aviv. The film presents a view of the 1948 battle for Lod fought between Haganah forces and Arab forces claiming that some of the Arab residents were deported from the town. I fail to see what Ben Gvir hopes to accomplish with this. The movie is going to be screened abroad regardless, and he has no ability to stop that.
A member of Ben Gvir’s Party, Amichai Eliyahu, publicly accused members of a mosque, al-Nuzha, in Jaffa of being terrorists and collaborating with the two terrorists that opened fire last week at a Tel Aviv light rail station killing six and injuring many more. The idiot made these accusations even after it was revealed that it was members of the mosque that alerted the police that an attack was taking place. The police released a recording very soon after the attack of the mosque members during their call to the police verifying that they were trying to assist. Then this idiot’s boss, Ben Gvir, threatened to demolish the mosque it it was revealed that they cooperated with the terrorists. This has led to a prominent family member, Adina Bar Shalom, of the former Chief Sephardi Rabbi to lead a delegation of people to the mosque and its community offering their support. And the idiot just can’t stop. After their visit he posted on his x.com account that “Supporting terrorists is not my Judaism.” Sigh! It is not just embarrassing to have such idiots in places of power, but out right dangerous to the country’s well being.
Five Arab Israeli citizens from the village of Taybeh were arrested today based on evidence that they were affiliated with ISIS and had active plans and the means to carry out a car bombing attack on Tel Aviv’s Azrieli Mall, one of the busiest shopping areas of Tel Aviv. For those of you who have visited Israel, that mall is located inside the 3 Azrielli Towers at the intersection of Derech Shalom and Derech Menachem Begin. You can read more here.
Aid
The UN’s UNICEF organization (which does not suffer from the massive corruption found in UNRWA) today says that they secured an agreement with all parties (i.e. IDF and Hamas) for regular pauses in fighting during set hours of the day starting October 14 so they can complete the second round of vaccinations of about 600,000 children in Gaza.
On this report you can see a video showing Hamas operatives commandeering humanitarian aid trucks and unloading their cargo to be stored in their own warehouses above and below ground. They then sell that aid to the Gaza population at a profit so they can pay their terrorists. There have been calls for the IDF to take over the aid distribution. But firstly there is an overall manpower shortage issue in the IDF and secondly, it would set up IDF troops for easy sniper targeting.
Hostages/Ceasefire
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati wrote today on his x.com account that contacts between the USA and France are taking place with the goal of reviving a ceasefire for a set period so a political solution could be found. I doubt that Israel would agree to a ceasefire. Instead, most likely they will respond that they are willing to engage in discussions that will lead to a ceasefire agreement, but will not halt its offensive until such agreement is reached. The IDF cannot provide Hezbollah free time to re-arm.
Some of you may recall my post on September 21st when I wrote “My View - A Topsy Turvy View of a Hostage/Ceasefire Deal”. To quote myself I extract this section:
It is my view that the only chance to get the Sinwar Brothers to a deal is to put them in a position where they see that “All is Lost”. This or the IDF storms their hideout, risking the lives of the remaining hostages. So how do we get them to conclude that “All is Lost”? If leaders of the Western World had not lost their moral compass by criticizing Israel and making ridiculous daily accusations against us, they might get the message. But waiting for US and European leaders to regain their moral compass is too risky. So, it is my view that one of the best ways for them to realize that "All is Lost” is by making sure they understand that Hezbollah lost its ability to threaten Israel from the north. To accomplish that, Israel must push Hezbollah forces north of the Litani River, out of rocket range, and destroy much of their arsenal of rockets/missiles.
I wrote that after “The Grim Beeper Operation” but before the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah. Well there are reports coming out now that Israeli Director of Mossad David Barnea has started discussion with CIA Director William Burns regarding making a ceasefire with Hezbollah contingent on securing the release of hostages from Hamas. Read it here. It is still too early, I believe, but not too early to strategize and think it through. The IDF needs to continue its ground operation still. It is my hope that they move as far north as the Litani River. At that point, Iran will want to urgently reach a deal of some kind that prevents the overall destruction of Hezbollah’s rule of Lebanon.
International
Late last week President for Life of Turkiye Tayyep Erdogan said during a speech to his political party that:
The Israeli government, which has gone mad in the Holy Land, will possibly target our homeland with its religious fanaticism after Palestine and Lebanon.
He apparently also said that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu harbors fantasies of occupying Turkiye.
This prompted a statement from our President Herzog to issue a statement during a meeting with the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations during their visit to Jerusalem. In it, President Herzog said in reply:
On the contrary we have great respect to the people of Turkey, and they have great respect for the people of Israel. We have longstanding relations between the peoples, and the peoples will prevail over all voices that are adverse to friendship and coexistence.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
Here you can view the incredible Einat Wilf, former Member of Knesset from the left wing Labor Party, delivering a speech addressing the fundamental causes of what has become known as the Arab-Israeli conflict. I do not call it the Palestinian-Israel conflict because it predates any discussions of something called Palestine and it predates the 1967 6 day war resulting in Israel’s absorption of what has become known as the Sinai, Gaza, Judea/Samaria (West Bank) and Golan Heights. It is long, about 1 hour. But, if you can afford the time it is worth listening to. I recommend you jump to 10 minutes into video to judge whether it is worth your time or not. Wilf comes from the Israeli Left. Her opinions are largely held by most members of the left of center population.
This Op-Ed from Avi Issacharoff, co-producer/write of the TV Series Fauda and former special forces commander, describes the current situation in Lebanon and the opportunity of reducing Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon. But he doesn’t explain how to achieve that goal.
Here is a great interview with Israeli Academic Dr. Dan Schueftan. When I was a graduate student at UC-Berkeley we brought him to speak on campus about the Middle East. In my opinion he has an incredible perspective on how the October 7 attack should be viewed in a global context. It is 40 minutes, but really worth it for you to listen to.